What the Data Shows About the Vikings 'Dumbing Down' the Offense for J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy's struggles staying healthy and on-field performance woes have led Minnesota to consider adding a veteran who could displace the former 10th overall pick in 2026. His struggles on the field also led to the well-documented dumbing down of Kevin O'Connell's offense midway through the 2025 season.

Now, beat writer Alec Lewis, who writes for The Athletic, claims Minnesota "removed most of its over-the-middle passing concepts throughout the season" to help McCarthy. That line has gone viral on social media, with fan accounts taking it too far, wrongly assuming that the Vikings took over-the-middle passing routes out of the game plan to simplify things for the 23-year-old QB.

In reality, it appears far more likely that removing "most" of the over-the-middle passing concepts is directly correlated to what running back Aaron Jones said in December about the offense being dumbed down for McCarthy.

"Some of where it gets complex, where everybody may not have the same deeper understanding of each play concept, is where we've, kind of, made it, I wouldn't say dumb it down, made it less, yeah, I guess in a way dumbed it down," Jones said. "Took the meat off of it, but you're still getting a lot of everything though. It's give and take."

When asked if the offense was complicated, Jones responded, "I mean, to me it's not complicated. I've been playing football all my life. But to some people, it can be. It's like learning a new language."

After diving into passing charts week-by-week, it is obvious that McCarthy wasn't asked to avoid passing over the middle. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they didn't take away some of the more complicated routes to make things easier for him. That's likely what Lewis is talking about.

McCarthy over-the-middle passing (per PFF)

Week	Completions/Attempts	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions
Week 1 @ Chicago	3/4	23	1	0
Week 2 vs. Atlanta	3/6	59	0	0
Week 9 @ Detroit	4/6	38	1	1
Week 10 vs. Baltimore	8/15	79	0	2
Week 11 vs. Chicago	9/13	104	0	1
Week 12 @ Green Bay	6/9	41	0	2
Week 14 vs. Washington	7/8	69	2	0
Week 15 @ Dallas	6/9	123	0	1
Week 16 @ New York Giants	6/7	72	0	0
Week 18 vs. Green Bay	5/8	82	0	0
Total	57/85	690	4	7

The biggest takeaway is that passing over the middle didn't disappear after a bit of an aggressive stretch in Weeks 10 and 11. Instead, his over-the-middle attempts went from 16 total in his first three starts, up to 28 combined in Weeks 10 and 11, and back down to 7-9 per game over his final four starts.

Overall, McCarthy completed 57.6% of his passes. When passing in the middle of the field, his accuracy jumped to 66%, compared to just 55% outside the hashes. His yards-per-attempt are also notably higher over the middle (8.12) compared to when throwing to the sidelines (5.96).

However, the majority of McCarthy's interceptions came when throwing over the middle (7 to 5), while he threw more touchdowns outside the hashes (7 to 4).

What's more interesting are the numbers before Jones mentioned the 'dumbing down' of the offense.

Jones made his comment before the Week 14 game against the Commanders. That was after a dismal stretch of games for McCarthy in which he threw seven interceptions while tossing just four touchdowns during a 1-3 stretch for the Vikings in Weeks 9-12. Check out McCarthy's over-the-middle and outside-the-hashes passing during that stretch.

Over the middle: 27/43 | 63% | 262 yards | 6.09 y/a | 1TD | 6 Int
Outside the hashes: 35/75 | 47% | 366 yards | 4.88 y/a | 3 TD | 1 Int

Now, compare that to his final four games of the season, Weeks 14-16, and Week 18.

Over the middle: 24/32 | 75% | 346 yards | 10.81 y/a | 2 TD | 1 Int
Outside the hashes: 30/52 | 58% | 357 yards | 6.87 y/a | 3 TD | 1 Int

McCarthy's accuracy took drastic leaps in both categories after the Vikings dumbed it down for him. He also cut out the interceptions while his yards-per-attempt took equally big leaps. However, there is a massive caveat that must be mentioned when looking at the numbers.

The defenses the Vikings faced in those final four games were either among the worst in the league (Washington, Dallas, New York Giants) or resting all of their starters (Green Bay). So, while the numbers showed an uptick, and McCarthy appeared to display some growth during that stretch, it's fair to point out he was playing some of the worst defenses in the league.

J.J. McCarthy (9) slaps hands with Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell after a made field goal against Dallas — Dec 14, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) slaps hands with Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell after a made field goal against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

So, where does that leave McCarthy in the Vikings' eyes?

Well, the team has already stated its desire to bring in a veteran to compete with him next season. NFL insider Jason La Canfora is reporting that "McCarthy has proven to be difficult to [develop]," which allegedly played a role in the surprise firing of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

"They can say what they want publicly, but they have some serious questions about McCarthy,” an anonymous GM told La Canfora. “Look, they’re signing somebody else to push him. And it’s not just going to be some stiff on a vet-minimum contract.”

Lewis noted that "results are required" and that the Minnesota front office is "gauging all of the quarterback possibilities with an open mind."

Whether it's Kirk Cousins returning, who La Canfora says is a realistic possibility, or one of Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, or Malik Willis, the Vikings will certainly have options this offseason.

McCarthy over-the-middle passing (per PFF)

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