Three Burning Questions Maple Leafs Must Answer After Winning NHL Lottery

The Toronto Maple Leafs won the 2026 NHL Draft lottery. | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Those who believe draft lotteries are rigged will have plenty of new ammunition to work with after the Maple Leafs were awarded the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL draft. It’s a seismically lucky turn for Toronto, which had its worst season since 2016.

The Maple Leafs have missed the playoffs just twice in the last 11 years. Both times, they won the draft lottery and secured the No. 1 pick, a fate other franchises who have struggled vastly more than Toronto could only dream of. The last time the Maple Leafs picked first, in 2016, they selected Auston Matthews, who rapidly became the face of the franchise and its all-time leading goal scorer.

Toronto had just an 8.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick, fifth-best odds after ending the season with the fifth-worst record in the NHL. The Flames, Rangers, Blackhawks and Canucks all had higher lottery odds than the Maple Leafs. None of those teams earned a top-two selection, with Vancouver, dogged by misfortune, set to pick at No. 3 despite having 14 fewer points than any other team last year. The Canucks have an unfortunate history in the draft lottery, having never been awarded the No. 1 pick in the draft throughout in their 60 years as a franchise.

Can the Maple Leafs convince Auston Matthews to remain with the franchise?

Matthews, however, has reportedly been reconsidering his future with the Maple Leafs. There’s been reports that he’s considering seeking a trade in the offseason, unsure whether Toronto can realistically match his ambitions in the upcoming season. It’s possible, with the No. 1 pick now in tow, he’d reconsider that stance.

So, just what does landing the top pick mean for the organization that’s hoping to keep its biggest star? Well, new GM John Chayka just received a major gift from the lottery gods. The pick, if outside the top five, would’ve transferred to the Bruins as part of the Brandon Carlo trade. Instead, the Maple Leafs not only hold onto their own pick, but had the good fortune of flying up the board to No. 1.

Not only do Chayka and the Leafs have the top pick, but they’ll also have ample cap space to work with this offseason. Trading the No. 1 pick is highly unlikely, but they’ll have the ability to select Gavin McKenna, Penn State’s playmaking center who could likely be a contributor from Day 1. Pair that with a couple of successful free agency signings, and the Maple Leafs could very well look like a playoff-caliber team again in just a few months. Would that be enough to entice Matthews to stay? It certainly wouldn’t hurt in the team’s efforts of keeping him.

Matthews still has two years left on his contract at a rate of $13.5 million per season. He’s scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in 2028, unless he agrees to an extension with Toronto. The Maple Leafs could potentially put an end to all the chatter about Matthews’s potential departure by locking him down on a long-term extension this offseason.

Who will Toronto draft with the No. 1 pick?

McKenna is widely projected as the No. 1 pick, and has been for years. He had 51 points in 36 games at Penn State after recording a 129-point season for the Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL in 2024-25. Beyond McKenna, other highly rated prospects in the class of ’26 include Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg, center Caleb Malhorta of the OHL’s Brantford Bulldogs is another intriguing prospect Toronto could consider.

Making the most of the top pick will be vital, too, considering Toronto is without its first-round pick for the next two years, though they do own the Avalanche’s first in ’27 if it falls outside of the top 10. Considering how good Colorado is, however, that pick will very likely be a late first-rounder. Because they held onto their own pick this year, the aforementioned trade with the Bruins won’t be complete until ’28, at which point Boston will have the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick. Toronto’s pick in ’27 is owned by the Flyers.

What free agents will the Maple Leafs target?

Alex Tuch, RW

The Sabres winger had a sensational season, helping Buffalo snap its infamous playoff drought. He had 66 points in 79 games, logging 33 goals and assists. A gifted two-way forward capable of playing with physicality and scoring goals in bunches, Tuch will be a highly sought-after free agent this offseason. Even if the Maple Leafs draft Gavin McKenna to bolster their offense, signing Tuch would be a big win for Toronto.

Sergei Bobrovsky, G

The Maple Leafs didn’t get enough from their goaltenders last season, though Dennis Hildeby was solid in his limited opportunities. Bobrovsky, however, will be the crown jewel of the goaltending market this offseason. A clutch playoff performer and one of the most experienced netminders in the league, Bobrovsky would be a great fit on a short-term deal in Toronto, providing the protection in goal that they’ve lacked over the last few years.

John Carlson, D

Signing aging defensemen hasn’t always worked out for the Maple Leafs, but this is a team that’s not looking to rebuild, but rather re-tool. Carlson is one of the best two-way defensemen in the sport, racking up 60 points in 2025-26, including 14 points on the power play. He’s a +28 over the last two seasons, and even at 36 years old is a minutes eater, averaging 23:10 of ice time last year.

Mario Ferraro, D

An absolute workhorse and a capable defensive-minded defenseman, Ferraro would be an invaluable addition to the Maple Leafs. He’s a grinder and can soak up big minutes on a nightly basis, bringing the defensive presence that was often lacking for Toronto last season.

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