Bears Moving to Indiana Spikes on Kalshi Prediction Market

The Chicago Bears' price of staying in Illinois continues to move south, and so might their new stadium, with Kalshi now leaning toward a move to Indiana. Kalshi’s NFL market is offering event contracts on whether the Chicago Bears will relocate and where they do.

In just under two weeks, the Bears’ price of staying in Illinois plummeted from 58% to 44% while a move to Indiana surged from 37% to 57%. It now sites at 53% to move to Indiana and 51% to stay in Illinois.

Chicago Bears relocation - Kalshi

Indiana 53%
New location in Illinois 51%
Do not relocate 1%

The market settles based on where the team announces its relocation plans before the 2028 season. Trading $10 on the Bears moving to Indiana profits $7.92.

Forcing the market shift

On Wednesday, several analysts and personalities around the NFL suggested that the Chicago Bears are leaning towards relocating to Indiana, which caused a stir on Kalshi. It started when the Mayor of Hammond, Indiana, Tom McDermott, spoke to NBC Chicago about waiting for the Bears' expected announcement on Thursday.

"I hope it's about the stadium," McDermott said. "I don't want to presume, but I was told there's going to be an announcement tomorrow, and that's the issue we're all dealing with."

Just hours after McDermott spoke to NBC, David Haugh of 670 The Score reported that the organization expects to make an announcement on Thursday regarding the stadium project.

Others downplayed the announcement. Brenden Moore of Capitol News Illinois reported that the announcement is not as big as many expect and that those keeping up with the saga should lower their expectations.

“I spoke to a source close to the Bears earlier today who stressed that ‘it's not some major announcement’ they'll be making tomorrow. ‘Right now, it's like a 10 in terms of what people think is coming, and it should be at about a three.’”

Reason for moving

Reports have long said the Bears’ time in Soldier Field may end, possibly before their lease expires in 2033. It is the oldest stadium in the NFL, with an opening year of 1924, and it last underwent a major renovation for the 2002 season. It is also the NFL’s smallest stadium, with a capacity of just 61,500.

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