Canada Big Underdog Against Morocco on Kalshi

From the Great White North to trading prices going south. Canada is a massive underdog in the Round of 16 against Morocco and seems likely to be the first World Cup host team eliminated.

There is a 42% differential in their prices, with Morocco at 71% to advance and Canada at just 21%. Note that regulation-time markets cover only the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time and exclude overtime and penalties. Prices to advance appear on a separate market.

Canada vs. Morocco - Kalshi

To advance: Morocco (71%) vs. Canada (29%)
Reg. Moneyline: Morocco (54%) vs. Canada (20%), Draw (28%)
Reg. Spread: Morocco -1.5 (28%)
Reg. Total: 2.5

Trading $10 on Morocco to advance profits $3.43 and $22.82 on Canada if it advances. Morocco to win in regulation on Kalshi's World Cup market profits $7.92 and $37.32 for Canada. Both at $10 trades as well.

Morocco feeds off comeback win

Morocco looked all but eliminated in the Round of 32 against the Netherlands before tying the game 1-1 in stoppage time and winning in penalties. That marked Morocco’s third straight win. Morocco is 4-1-0 through four World Cup matches with a +3 goal difference of 7-4.

Canada’s been on a shakier run at 2-1-1, scoring nine goals and conceding three. However, six of the nine goals came against a Qatar team that conceded 10 goals in the group stage. Canada also needed a late stoppage time goal to take down South Africa in the Round of 32. That was their first time winning a knockout stage game.

Morocco holds the advantage in key metrics, including possession, expected goal differential, and expected goals conceded.

The road ahead

A win for either would send them to the quarterfinals with a potential matchup against either Paraguay or France on July 9th. Beyond the quarterfinals, if either of them makes it past France, they’ll match up with Portugal, Croatia, Spain, Austria, USA, or Belgium in the semifinals.

With a tough gauntlet ahead of the Round of 16, both Canada and Morocco sit towards the bottom of the World Cup winners board. Canada has a 0.3% chance to win, while Morocco sits ahead with a 2.4% chance.

Canada and Morocco kick off July 4th at 1 p.m. EST from NRG Stadium in Houston.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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