Carlos Alcaraz Favored to Win U.S. Open on Kalshi Prediction Market With Jannik Sinner Injured

After a four-month absence, Carlos Alcaraz returns at the US Open and is favored to win on Kalshi’s US Open market. In his return, Alcaraz is a 32% favorite to win his third US Open title.

Alcaraz has a 12% lead over Alexander Zverev in second place, and a 22% lead over Novak Djokovic at 10%. These are the only three players in the field with a 10% price or higher. A $10 trade on Alcaraz to win the US Open profits $19.81.

US Open Men’s Singles winner - Kalshi

Carlos Alcaraz 32%
Alexander Zverev 20%
Novak Djokovic 10%

Alcaraz suffered a right wrist injury in the first round of the Barcelona Open. Although he won his first-round matchup, he withdrew from the tournament the next day, and doctors diagnosed him with tenosynovitis. Through 138 days of absence, the injury forced Alcaraz to miss eight tournaments, including the French Open as the two-time defending champion and Wimbledon.

Picking up where he left off

Before the injury, Alcaraz was on fire with a 22-3 record through 2026, including wins at the Australian Open and Qatar Open. Now, Kalshi expects him to pick up that momentum at the US Open, especially now that Jannik Sinner is out as he deals with a knee injury.

Sinner is easily his biggest competitor, with 17 career meetings between the two. Alcaraz leads the series 10-7; however, Sinner has won the last two head-to-heads.

The US Open is one of Alcaraz’s best tournaments, with a 24-3 overall record across five appearances and two titles, including last year. He has a strong 159-44 career record on hard court surfaces (78%) as well.

Overcoming adversity

Earlier in August, analysts did not expect Alcaraz to play in the US Open despite his efforts to try and return. Kalshi listed him with just a 20% chance of playing in the tournament, while analysts and former players all suggested he skip the US Open and return at a later date.

Now just over a week from his 20% price to play in the tournament, Alcaraz is gearing up for his return to singles play starting on Sunday, August 30, from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York.

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