Cincy Surprise! Joe Burrow MVP Favorite at Kalshi

Make no mistake about it, when Joe Burrow is healthy, he is 100% an MVP-caliber quarterback. The keyword here, though, is “when.”

Since being drafted six years ago in 2020, Burrow has only managed to play three seasons at full health.

With no injury in sight for the 2026 season, at least not yet, Kalshi has backed him fully as the favorite to win the MVP at 11%, just ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who both sit with 10%.

2026 NFL MVP Market - Kalshi

Joe Burrow 11%
Josh Allen 10%
Lamar Jackson 10%
Justin Herbert 9%
Caleb Williams 6%
Drake Maye 6%
Dak Prescott 6%
Matthew Stafford 6%
Patrick Mahomes 6%
Brock Purdy 5%

Burrow played at full strength in the 2021, 2022, and 2024 seasons. He threw for over 4,450 yards and 34+ touchdowns in each of those seasons. His 2024 campaign was his career best, having thrown for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions. In both the 2022 and 2024 seasons, Burrow finished in fourth place in MVP voting.

Even in the 2020, 2023, and 2025 seasons, where he didn't play a full year, he was still putting up MVP-like numbers. If he played fully healthy seasons across those three years, based on his combined stats from those three seasons, he was on pace for over 4,100 yards and nearly 30 touchdowns each season.

What’s Changed For Cincinnati

The main concern for the Bengals last season was the number of sacks they allowed. In just eight games played in 2025, Burrow was sacked 17 times. In a fully healthy 2024, that number was 48, which was top-10 in the league. This is nothing new.

That said, the Bengals went out and addressed their talent issue on the offensive line, drafting center Connor Lew and tackle Brian Parker. Lew allowed just three total sacks across his three seasons at Auburn, while Parker allowed just four sacks in three seasons starting at Duke.

The defense last season was also glued to the field, leaving the offense on the sideline. This is a major issue that they’ve addressed not only in the NFL Draft, but in free agency as well.

On the defensive line, they added two big names in the middle in Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. In the secondary, they brought over CB Kyle Dugger from the Pittsburgh Steelers, FS Bryan Cook from Kansas City, and drafted CB Tacario Davis out of Washington.

Understanding the MVP Market

As far as understanding the market, Burrow has the highest percent chance to win the NFL MVP award at 11%. Putting up $10 on his 11% chance would profit $75.54 if he were to win.

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