College Football Week 1 Upsets: Kalshi Prediction Market Favors a Top-25 Team to Go Down

The one word that no top-25 college football team ever wants to hear is “upset.” There is plenty of potential for an unranked upset right in Week 1, and Kalshi’s college football market prices at least one unranked upset at 73%.

Kalshi offers event contracts on the number of unranked upsets that take place between Week 0 and Week 1, with the market running from August 22 to September 7. It also only grades off the AP rankings and no others. A $10 trade on one unranked upset profits $3.43.

College Football Week 1 Unranked Upsets

1+ unranked upsets 73%
2+ unranked upsets 39%
3+ unranked upsets 9%
4+ unranked upsets 6%
5+ unranked upsets 1%

More common than we think

Since 2021, at least one unranked upset has occurred every year between Week 0 and Week 1. In 2021 and 2022, one unranked team went on to defeat a ranked opponent. The total grew to two unranked upsets in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Florida State has driven the recent trend. Of the four unranked upsets since 2024, the Seminoles have accounted for three of them. In 2024, they went into the season as the no. 10 team and lost in Week 0 to Georgia Tech and again in Week 1 to Boston College. Both unranked. In 2025, the Seminoles were unranked and took down no. 8 Alabama in the biggest upset of the week.

Can Florida State add another upset?

In 2026, the stage is set, and Florida State comes in unranked and will host no. 19 SMU on Labor Day. Of all the ranked vs. unranked matchups in Week 1, this one has the closest set spread on Kalshi at just 2.5 points in favor of SMU, while Florida State has a 45% moneyline.

Another upset brewing?

Eyes will also be on the Clemson vs. No. 11 LSU matchup, as this is the second-smallest spread for an unranked vs. ranked matchup. The two met last season, when LSU won 17-10.

A look around Week 1

While nothing is ever a sure thing, 22 of the remaining ranked vs. unranked matchups in Week 1 all have spreads of 20+ points, while 20 of them are against non-P4 teams with no. 7 Miami at Stanford and Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame are the only two-P4 matchups between ranked and unranked teams.

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