England Surge in World Cup Prediction Market After Round 1 Win

“You’re a wizard, Harry,” is what all of England is saying after Harry Kane’s two-goal performance against Croatia. England never trailed in the game, ultimately winning 4-2.

Following the victory, a major price update hit prediction markets, sending England surging up the board ahead of Argentina, but it remains behind France and Spain.

World Cup Winner - Kalshi

France 18.5%
Spain 13.6%
England 12.9%
Argentina 11.3%
Portugal 8.5%

World Cup Winner - Polymarket

France 18%
Spain 14%
England 13%
Argentina 12%
Portugal 8%

Kalshi’s World Cup prediction market offers $63.02 in profit on a $10 trade on England. Polymarket is offering a tad more at $65.49 at the same trade.

How England's opener unfolded

Winning in convincing fashion, England opened their 2026 World Cup with two straight goals from Harry Kane in the first half. The first on a penalty kick in the 12th minute and another at the 42-minute mark. Croatia answered with two first-half goals of their own.

Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford added the final two goals in the 47th and 85th minutes, respectively.

Price movement

After Argentina’s 3-0 win, England stalled at around 10.5%. After securing their win, they jumped by 2.5 percentage points to retake control of the third spot on the board.

The impact of that win is reflected even more in the Goup L winner market, as they jumped nearly 20% percentage points, from 71% to 91% to win the group. Harry Kane’s Golden Boot chances rose nine percentage points as well, and he now sits with a 20% chance to win.

What’s next

England vs. Ghana - Kalshi

England 79%
Ghana 7%
Draw 15%

England next plays Ghana on Tuesday, June 23, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts at 4 p.m. EST. Ghana is coming off a win over Panama, where they scored a 95th-minute goal to win. England goes into this one a 79% favorite with prediction markets giving Ghana just an 8% chance to win and 15% to draw.

Within the game lines, England has a 57% chance to win by more than 1.5 goals. There is an implied 58% chance that more than 2.5 total goals are scored in the game.

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