Game Over? Diego Pavia Roster Prediction Market Low

From Anchor Down to man down, following his historic run at Vanderbilt, the Baltimore Ravens signed Diego Pavia for rookie camp and waived him on Thursday. Polymarket now gives him an uphill battle to land on a roster by Week 1 of the season.

Currently, Pavia is priced at 40% on Polymarket’s NFL market to sign with a team before the regular season begins.

Will Diego Pavia be rostered by Week 1? - Kalshi

At his current price, trading price, a $20 trade on him to land with a team by the regular season profits $30. Polymarket will grade this market on September 9th at 8:35 p.m. based on whether a team has signed him to a 53-man active roster. Practice squads do not count.

NFL teams holding back

Out of Vanderbilt, Pavia went undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft. Several factors contributed to his undrafted status, which could come up again ahead of the regular season. Starting with his height and wingspan, both are undersized for an NFL QB at 5’9 and 73.5 inches.

He’s also much older for a rookie QB at 24 years old due to his run in junior college before making the jump to FBS. NFL teams prefer a younger quarterback with more room for development. Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and C.J. Stroud are all QBs under 25 who developed into starting QBs.

Then there are the off-field issues. Pavia has a strong character, and it showed following the Heisman ceremony, where he finished second to Fernando Mendoza. Following the ceremony, Pavia appeared in a nightclub yelling profanities about Indiana in retaliation to Mendoza winning.

Does Pavia deserve another chance?

Absolutely, anyone who single-handedly turns around a program of Vanderbilt’s caliber deserves some kind of NFL recognition. Before Pavia arrived in Nashville, Vandy won nine games total since the 2020 season and was coming off a 2-10 year in 2023.

In 2024, Pavia led them to a 7-6 record, followed by a 10-3 record in 2025. The program's first 10+ win season in history.

He totaled 3,539 passing yards (top-15), 29 passing touchdowns, 862 rushing yards, and 10 rushing touchdowns in his final collegiate season.

New users who sign up with the Polymarket invite code SIBONUS and deposit $20 or more will receive $50 in trading funds — one of the best welcome offers in prediction markets right now.

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