J.J. McCarthy Trade Prediction Market Shoots Up Ahead of Vikings Training Camp

Short and anything but sweet is the perfect way to describe J.J. McCarthy’s time with the Minnesota Vikings. Kalshi agrees with his strong 80% price to be traded this season.

McCarthy’s 74% trade price currently sits second on the NFL trade market on Kalshi. Trading $10 on McCarthy getting traded offers $3.43 return. Kalshi’s trade market settles on December 1st, 2026, and grades on whether or not he is traded by then.

Will J.J. McCarthy get traded? - Kalshi

Yes 73%
No 98%

Disaster from the start

Drafted 10th overall in 2024, McCarthy showed immediate red flags that he wouldn’t become the player Minnesota hoped for. In his first preseason game of the 2024 season, McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus which forced him out of his entire rookie season.

With the injury behind him in 2025, McCarthy earned the Week 1 starting job and played just two games before getting injured and missing the next five games. Overall, McCarthy missed seven games last year. In the 10 games that he started and played through, he looked horrible with just 1,632 pass yards (163.2 yards per game), 11 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

While Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has a strong track record of developing QBs, McCarthy already looks like a quarterback who needs a fresh start.

Calling into Duty: Kyler Murray

The trade case grew even stronger when Minnesota signed Kyler Murray in free agency. Murray is the heavy 86% favorite on Kalshi to win the Week 1 job.

Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Starting QB - Kalshi

Kyler Murray 86%
J.J. McCarthy 14%

Murray fits the exact mold of quarterbacks O’Connell has succeeded with. A starting caliber QB in need of a fresh start.

We saw it with Jared Goff before the Los Angeles Rams traded him for Matthew Stafford, with Stafford, which led to a Super Bowl win, Sam Darnold on the Vikings before becoming the Seattle Seahawks starting QB, and some of Kirk Cousins best years in the league.

Between Murray being favored to start the season and McCarthy’s clear struggle to adapt to the NFL, a trade seems nearly inevitable, and Kalshi’s price tells exactly that.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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