Joe Burrow Drops in NFL MVP Market at Kalshi

While Joe Burrow has been busy attending fashion shows in Europe this summer, Kalshi has slightly dropped his MVP price. It has nothing to do with his off-field passions. Burrow has played well and been considered an MVP candidate in the past. But injuries and the Cincinnati Bengals' underperformance continue to hold him back.

On Kalshi’s NFL MVP market, the most recent price update dropped 2% from 11% to 9%. Before the update, his 11% price tied him with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson atop the market. At 9%, he sits alone with the second strongest price.

NFL MVP Winner - Kalshi

Josh Allen 11%
Justin Herbert 11%
Lamar Jackson 11%
Joe Burrow 9%.

Trading $10 on Burrow to win the MVP offers $84 profit if he wins. His 9% price is the lowest it’s been in over two months.

Trending down

Injuries and Cincinnati’s lack of success play a major role in Burrow’s negative narrative. Starting with the lack of competitiveness. The Bengals' playoff drought now sits at three years. Their defense has held them back, ranking in the bottom half of the league in yards and points allowed over the stretch.

It's not all on the defense, though, as Burrow’s injuries have played a role as well. Especially over the last three seasons. In 2023, Burrow suffered a season-ending torn wrist ligament that forced him out of the final seven games of the season. In 2024, he missed nine games with a severe turf toe injury. The Bengals went 1-8 without him and have gone 7-16 all-time when he misses time.

MVP form

Burrow is no stranger to contending for an MVP. He’s finished fourth in MVP voting twice in the 2022 and 2024 seasons. He threw for 4,400+ yards and 35+ touchdowns both years. In 2022, the Bengals lost in the AFC Championship. They missed the playoffs in 2024.

Surrounding pieces

If Burrow remains healthy, Cincinnati did its part in adding to the defense by signing edge Boye Mafe, defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, and safety Kyle Dugger, to name a few. They also drafted Connor Lew and Brian Parker in an effort to bulk up the offensive line. Burrow has taken 89 sacks over the last three seasons.

If he can stay healthy and the Bengals overperform, he could be in the running for the MVP. But his drop in the market showcases the cause for concern around a big name who is still chasing the top dogs.

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