Joe Espada Fired Market Spikes on Kalshi

Houston, we have a problem. Kalshi’s MLB market is extremely bullish on the Houston Astros moving on from Joe Espada. There’s a heavy 69% price on the Astros firing Espada by the end of the year.

Espada’s firing price sat well below 50%, at 29%, for nearly a week. However, his price surged 40% to the 69% price he now sits at in just days.

Will Joe Espada be out of the Houston Astros? - Kalshi

Yes 69%
No 49%

The market grades on December 1st based on whether or not Espada is still with the team. A $10 trade profits $4.17 if he’s out by then and $9.13 if he is still with the Astros.

Coming to an end?

It’s safe to say that the Joe Espada experiment in Houston has not fared well at all. In three seasons to this point, Espada has a 236-208 record at the time of writing and has been trending down since he got there.

Houston finished 88-73 with a Wild Card loss in 2024, 87-75 in 2025, missing the playoffs, and now sits 62-60 in first place in the AL West, however, just two game lead ahead of the Texas Rangers and 5 ahead of the Seattle Mariners. The Astros are in fifth place in the American League and two games from falling out of the playoff race.

Where things really take a turn for the worse is in stolen bases, where the Astros are at their lowest rate in over 10 years. The Astros have just a 4.2% rate when stealing second and a 0.6% rate in stealing third. Both are the lowest of his three-year tenure.

The Astros as a whole have been streaky throughout the season, with several losing streaks. Looking at the remaining two months of the regular season, things don’t get any easier. The Astros have two series remaining against the Seattle Mariners, and meetings with the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Atlanta Braves.

Houston next tees off on Friday in its first of two remaining series against the Mariners at 8:10 p.m. EST.

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