Josh Allen Has Slight Edge to Win NFL MVP Over Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson in Kalshi Prediction Market

The preseason NFL MVP market on Kalshi suggests an extremely close race, with Josh Allen currently at the top of the board. Allen has an 11% chance of winning this second MVP of his career.

Allen is one of four players going into the 2026 NFL season with a 10% chance to win or higher. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson sit right behind him.. A $10 trade on Allen winning profits $75.54.

NFL MVP Winner - Kalshi

Josh Allen 11%
Joe Burrow 10%
Justin Herbert 10%
Lamar Jackson 10%

Can Allen bounce back?

Following two straight seasons of regression in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, Kalshi is hinting at a bounce-back. The push comes with the Bills adding DJ Moore at receiver this offseason. Moore also needs a bounce-back after a career-low 682 receiving yards and six touchdowns with the Chicago Bears in 2025.

The defense should also present more opportunities and keep the offense on the field as much as possible, with Bradley Chubb, CJ Gardner-Johnson and Dee Alford all signing as well.

Health is key for Burrow

For Joe Burrow, it’s all about staying on the field. Anytime he’s healthy, he’s an immediate MVP contender, and we’ve seen that in three fully healthy seasons from him in 2021, 2022, and 2024, where he threw for over 4,400 yards and 34+ touchdowns in those seasons. He finished fourth in MVP voting in 2022 and 2024 with a career-high 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024.

He comes into this season returning to full health after severe turf toe limited him to eight games. He’ll have his full allotment of receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Cincinnati also added offensive-line depth to protect him.

New offense unlocks Herbert

If Mike McDaniel could get a 3,500+ yard and 4,600+ yard season out of Tua Tagovailoa, just imagine what he could do with Justin Herbert. Herbert hasn’t thrown for less than 3,100 yards in his career and for more than 3,700 in five of six seasons with 20+ touchdowns every year.

After McDaniel was fired from the Miami Dolphins, he was hired as Jim Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator. He turned in two top-15 offenses in his four years in Miami and should get the most out of Herbert as he’s done with several QBs.

Lamar playing for a contract

In technical terms, Lamar Jackson is playing for a contract. He and the Baltimore Ravens failed to agree on an extension before his deal is up in 2028. He also holds the advantage in contract negotiations with a no-trade clause, and Baltimore cannot franchise-tag him either

With Lamar wanting a long-term extension, we could see him put his money where his mouth is this season and put up MVP numbers similar to 2019 and 2023 when he won.

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