Kalshi Has Great Odds for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje for UFC Freedom 250

Arguably the biggest card of 2026, UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn, is set, and Ilia Topuria will face off against Justin Gaethje for the lightweight belt in the main event.

Topuria is an overwhelming favorite across the board, not just on Kalshi and other apps like it, but across major sportsbooks as well, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.

Kalshi: Ilia Topuria Vs. Justin Gaethje

Ilia Topuria: 82%
Justin Gaethje: 19%

Topuria is the massive favorite for good reason, and it all starts with his undefeated 17-0 record, which includes 15 finishes. Seven have come by KO/TKO, and the other eight by submission.

Of his nine flights in the UFC dating back to 2020, he’s finished seven of them and asserted himself as a knockout specialist with six KO/TKO wins, including each of his last three bouts. Making it even more impressive is that his last three knockout wins have come in title fights against Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira. Both Holloway and Oliveira have beaten Gaethje in early finishes.

The numbers speak for themselves as well. Topuria averages 4.81 significant strikes landed per minute at 48% accuracy. Gaethje, on the other hand, is allowing 51% of significant strikes to land at a concerning 7.05 per minute. It’s also worth noting that all five of Gaethje’s losses in the UFC have come by KO/TKO or submission.

This market first opened on May 18th with Topuria coming in as an 86% favorite to Gaethje’s 14%. He has since come down and settled at the 82% mark at the time of writing.

Where We See Value

While there are several options as to where to lay action on this main event fight, Kalshi is offering more value than others in the industry.

Where things sit on Kalshi right now, at 82%, a $25 risk would profit exactly $5.09. Compared to DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, this is going to be the most profitable payout on the same $25 risk.

If Topuria comes out on top, DraftKings would payout exactly $4 in profit, FanDuel $3.33, and BetMGM $3.13.

UFC Freedom 250 is set to take place on June 14 in Washington D.C. on the South Lawn of the White House with seven total fights on the card. It’ll start at 8:00 p.m. on Paramount+.

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