Kalshi & Polymarket Send Clear Message With USA vs. Australia World Cup Odds

The American Dream is alive and well ahead of the United States' next World Cup match against Australia. Prediction markets have made the United States a heavy favorite to earn their second win of the tournament.

Kalshi and Polymarket’s World Cup markets each have the USA listed at a 62% chance to win on Friday. This comes after the Americans demolished Paraguay 4-1 to begin the group stage.

USA vs Australia - Kalshi

USA 62%
Australia 19%
Draw 22%

USA vs Australia - Polymarket

USA 62%
Australia 19%
Draw 22%

The trading prices are the same across the board with similar payouts as well. A $10 stake on the U.S. profits $5.95, $41.35 for Australia, and $34.39 if the match ends in a draw.

The two sides coming in

Following a shaky 1-3 stretch of friendly matches leading up to the tournament, the U.S. quieted all doubts in their commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay highlighted by a two-goal performance from Folarin Balogun.

Australia had a more dramatic first match, beating Türkiye 2-0 as an 18% underdog on Kalshi prior to kickoff in a match that saw Türkiye favored at 58% favorite to win.

Group D market shift

Markets no longer see a two-team race between the United States and Türkiye to top Group D. The U.S. opened as 40% favorites with Türkiye right behind them at 36%. Australia sat in the worst position with just a 10% chance.

Following the wins from the USMNT and Australia, the Americans have risen to a 68% favorite with Australia now second on the board at 21% while Türkiye dropped to 8%.

Group D Winner

USA 68%
Australia 21%
Türkiye 8%
Paraguay 2%

History of USA vs Australia

The two nations have met twice before. The United States won both matches with a 5-2 total goal margin. Their first meeting was in 2010, where the U.S. won 3-1. Their most recent head-to-head was in October 2025, with the U.S. winning 2-1.

The United States and Australia open the Friday slate of World Cup games at 3 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle on FOX.

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