Kelsey Plum's Trade Market Flips on Kalshi: Now Expected to Stay in LA

Could Kelsey Plum’s time in LA be coming to an end? Kalshi now suggests that she’s remaining with the Los Angeles Sparks despite heavy trade rumors. Plum sits at a 59% to remain with the Sparks by the end of the WNBA trade deadline on August 2nd.

In less than 24 hours, Plum’s price on Kalshi’s WNBA market to remain with the LA Sparks surged from 16% to 59%. The Golden State Valkyries, previously favored to land Plum, dropped from 39% to 19%.

Kelsey Plum’s next team before August 3rd - Kalshi

Los Angeles Sparks 59%
Golden State Valkyries 19%
Washington Mystics 12%
Las Vegas Aces 4%
New York Liberty 4%

At her 59% price, trading $10 on Plum, staying with the Sparks profits $6.20. The market on Kalshi grades on August 3rd, one day after the trade deadline, based on which team she’s with by then.

A questionable shift?

Based on the current situation, Kalshi’s shift looks eye-opening. Plum is in the final year of her $999,999 contract extension and will hit free agency this offseason. Many around the league also believe that she will not re-sign with the team in the offseason.

When on the floor, Plum is one of the best scorers in the league, averaging 23.9 points and 6.4 assists this season. Injuries have been her downfall, as well as the team's in 2026. A lower left leg injury has limited Plum to just 12 games this year, which has left the team with a 3-12 record in her absence and a 7-5 record when she plays.

To this point, the Sparks are 10-17 and sitting five games out from a playoff spot. With the playoffs unlikely and Plum on an expiring contract, a trade almost seems inevitable to avoid letting her walk for free.

Sparks executive Farhan Zaidi recently told the LA Times that the team might be more willing to make a move before the deadline.

"We pushed in a lot of chips this year, and we had good reason to do that, but the reality is it hasn't gone as we'd hoped or expected," Zaidi said. "Now we have to be open for anything. Everything has to be on the table for us. We have to take a long-term perspective rather than focusing on the rest of the season.”

The Sparks do not play again before Sunday’s WNBA trade deadline, meaning Plum may have played her last game with the team.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock up to a $500 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.

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