Knicks in 4: Prediction Markets Favor a Sweep in NBA Finals

Prediction markets have completely flipped the switch following the New York Knicks 2-0 lead on the San Antonio Spurs. With the Knicks taking both games in San Antonio, not only have they overtaken the Spurs as the favorites per prediction markets, but they are now favored to sweep the series.

Kalshi’s NBA Finals prediction market has the Knicks listed with a 33% chance to sweep the series, while the NBA market on Polymarket has them with a slightly lower 32%. Both of which are the highest set percentages on the board.

NBA Finals Exact Outcome - Kalshi

NYK Wins 4-0 33%
NYK Wins 4-2 22%
NYK Wins 4-1 19%
SAS Wins 4-3 14%
NYK Wins 4-3 8%
SAS Wins 4-2 8%

NBA Finals Exact Outcome - Polymarket

NYK Wins 4-0 32%
NYK Wins 4-2 21%
NYK Wins 4-1 18%
SAS Wins 4-3 15%
NYK Wins 4-3 7%
SAS Wins 4-2 7%

With the Knicks trading at the highest chances to sweep on both Kalshi and Polymarket, they are slightly heavier favorites to win the NBA Finals 4-0 and complete the sweep over the Spurs. A $10 risk on the Knicks to sweep on Kalshi would profit $18.93, while that same risk is profiting $20.28 on Polymarket if they sweep.

Markets favoring Knicks in Games 3 & 4

If the market on the Knicks to sweep wasn't enough, Kalshi and Polymarket already have gamelines up for Game 3 and Game 4. In Game 3 on Polymarket, the Knicks have a 48% chance to cover a 2.5-point spread, along with 55% on the moneyline. They have a 56% moneyline for Game 4.

At Kalshi, they also have the Knicks with a 55% moneyline in Game 3. The spread, though, is being offered at a more favorable 1.5 with a 51% chance for the Knicks to cover. In Game 4, they have a 54% chance to win outright.

Game 2 thriller

Game 2 looked like the Knicks were running away with things late as they were up 14 points with just over six minutes remaining in the game. That was until the Spurs went on a 14-0 run in about three minutes to tie the game and eventually take a 2-point lead with under a minute remaining.

Victor Wembanyama committed a costly turnover with under 10 seconds remaining in the game, which led to a foul on Jalen Brunson. Brunson then knocked down two free throws, giving the Knicks the lead and the win.

Can history continue repeating itself?

As the Knicks get ready for Game 3 on Monday night in Madison Square Garden, their first two road wins of the finals saw them join the 1993 Chicago Bulls and the 1995 Houston Rockets as the only teams in NBA history to win the first two games of finals on the road.

Both the Bulls and Rockets went on to win the NBA Finals in those seasons. Chicago won 4-2 over the Phoenix Suns, while the Rockets completed the 4-0 sweep over the Orlando Magic.

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