Knicks in 5? Not According to Prediction Markets

A historic Game 4 is in the books, and the New York Knicks hold a commanding 3-1 lead over the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals. While prediction markets have shifted the series price, San Antonio is favored to win Game 5 at home.

Game 5: New York Knicks Vs. San Antonio Spurs - Kalshi

Moneyline: Spurs (65%) vs. Knicks (37%)
Spread: Spurs -5.5 (49%)
Total: 217.5

On Kalshi’s NBA Finals market, $10 profits $5.01 on San Antonio’s moneyline in Game 5, and $15.86 on New York if it wins. On the spread, a roughly even return is paid out either way. But the 5.5 number in San Antonio's favor says a lot.

Can New York win in San Antonio?

At this point in the series, no possibility can be counted out. Especially with New York winning both games on the road to start things out.

This has been a series of underdog performances thus far, with the underdog covering the spread in each game and winning three of the four outright.

Prediction markets are just as bullish on San Antonio to win Game 5 as they were in the first two games. Game 1 saw a 64% moneyline and a 4.5-point spread margin. Game 2 had them as a slightly stronger 67% favorite at a 6.5-point spread.

Historic Game 4 comeback + series price update

San Antonio could not miss in the first half of Game 4 as it built a 29-point lead and went into halftime leading 76-49. Out of the half, New York outscored San Antonio 26-14, including a 22-9 scoring run to finish the third quarter.

They continued to chip away at San Antonio's lead in the fourth on a 7-1 run with under five minutes left. New York found itself down by one. Off a Jalen Brunson missed three-pointer, OG Anunoby came with the tip-in basket with 1.2 seconds remaining, completing the largest comeback in NBA Finals history.

The Knicks hold a 3-1 lead heading into Game 5. Kalshi and Polymarket’s NBA Finals trading prices have adjusted accordingly to match the lead.

2026 NBA Finals Winners - Kalshi

New York Knicks 82%
San Antonio Spurs 19%

2026 NBA Finals Winner - Polymarket

New York Knicks 81.9%
San Antonio Spurs 18.6%

History of a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals/Playoffs

Teams up 3-1 in the NBA Finals have won 37 of 38 series since 1947. The only team to complete the comeback is the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers against the 73-9 Golden State Warriors.

In NBA playoff history, only 15 teams have overcome a 3-1 deficit, including two this postseason with the Philadelphia 76ers over the Boston Celtics, and the Detroit Pistons over the Orlando Magic.

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