Makhachev vs Garry Kalshi Prediction Market Gives Makhachev Massive Advantage

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry is the closest we’ll ever get to Khabib vs. Conor McGregor II. Makhachev, Khabib’s protégé, defends the welterweight title against Machado Garry, McGregor’s protege and fellow Irishman at UFC 330.

Makhachev is the heavy favorite on Kalshi’s UFC 330 market with a 74% chance to win. Machado Garry comes in with a 26% chance. Trading $10 profits $2.93 for Makhachev and $26.53 for Machado Garry.

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Islam Makhachev 74%
Ian Machado Garry 26%

Taking things conservatively

This is a true clash of the titans matchup between one of the best grapplers and submission artists in the division, Makhachev, and one of the top strikers, Garry. Makhachev brings his elite takedown abilities, averaging 3.1 per bout at 56% accuracy, to the table here, while Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy.

Where the conservative angle comes in is in both of their defenses against the other's strength. Machado Garry has one of the stronger takedown defenses in the welterweight division at 80%. On the other end, Islam rarely takes strike damage, absorbing just 1.45 per minute and allowing just 39% of opposing strikes to land.

Garry’s last two wins put his takedown defense and striking on full display. Against Belal Muhammad, who dominates ground control, he didn't allow one single takedown. His next time out against Carlos Prates, it was his striking, which he landed 141 of 259 attempts.

As for Islam, over his last six title bouts, he conceded ground control just once to Alexander Voklanovski, who he knocked out in the first round. His last six wins consist of three submissions, two decisions and one knockout.

Given their strengths against each other's weaknesses, Kalshi lists a 51% chance for the fight to go the distance and 61% on it going over 4.5 rounds.

UFC 330 takes place Saturday, August 15, at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

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