Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor: Everything Kalshi and Polymarket Are Saying

The one, the only, the Notorious, Conor McGregor, is finally making his return to the UFC in a welterweight bout against Max Holloway on July 11th at UFC 329.

Unfortunately for those hoping for a return of the old McGregor, the market is not in his favor and hasn't been since it first opened on May 18th. At the time of writing, Max Holloway is a heavy favorite of 69% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket. McGregor has 31% and 32%, respectively.

Reality of the market

While Conor will always bring the hype whenever he hits the octagon, there is no denying that he’s beyond his prime and very well has been since he lost to Khabib in 2018. Including that loss, he’s gone 1-3 in his last four fights, with all losses being early finishes.

On the other end, McGregor could not have drawn a tougher opponent in his return with Holloway not only being very active since 2023 with six fights since then, but he’s gone 4-2 with two of his wins coming by way of KO/TKO.

Holloway is well within the prime of his career, and it shows with him leading the UFC in total strikes landed (3,980) and significant strikes landed (3,681). He’s also top-10 amongst active fighters in knockdowns, finishes, and KO/TKO wins.

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor Props

On Polymarket, there are fight props to go along with the normal fight lines. There are five total props available for the bout, including:

Will the fight go the distance?

Yes $0.49
No $0.80

Will Max Holloway win by KO/TKO?

Yes $0.90
No $0.72

Will the fight be won by submission?

Yes $0.40
No $0.72

Will the fight be won by KO/TKO?

Yes $0.92
No $0.92

Will McGregor win by KO/TKO?

Yes $0.49
No $0.97

With Conor being finished by KO/TKO in his last two fights against Dustin Poirier and Holloway, a knockdown specialist, all indications on Polymarket lead to Holloway adding McGregor to his list of KO/TKO wins. Of Holloway’s 27 career wins, 12 of them have come by KO/TKO, while an additional two have come by submission.

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