Michael Penix Jr. Surpasses Tua Tagovailoa in Falcons Starting Quarterback Prediction Market on Kalshi

We’re just over two weeks from the NFL regular season, and the Atlanta Falcons haven’t named a starting quarterback yet. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa are neck and neck on Kalshi’s NFL market, with Penix Jr. recently taking the lead.

Tua had been favored by at least a 12% margin since the market opened on May 28 and even grew to an 80% lead at one point. Now, just two weeks before the season, Penix Jr. leads with a 56% chance.

Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting QB - Kalshi

Michael Penix Jr. 56%
Tua Tagovailoa 44%
Jack Strand 5%

At the current prices, a $10 trade profits $7.32 for Penix Jr. and $11.37 for Tua. Kalshi settles the market based on who the Falcons announce as their starting QB for Week 1.

Tua Not Impressing

Camp reports suggest the Falcons staff still hasn’t decided. Tua Tagovailoa went into training camp as QB1, as Penix Jr. was still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in Week 11 last season.

Many believed that with Penix Jr. out to start camp and Tua operating as QB1, he’d pull away in the competition. However, two preseason games in, Tua has not looked great. He started the Falcons' first preseason game and went 3-of-5 passing for just 22 yards in two series. He also fumbled the ball on his second snap of the game.

Penix Jr. Progressing

Headed into Week 3 of the preseason, Doctors have fully cleared Penix Jr. to return to practice. Head coach Kevin Stefanski did not commit to Penix Jr. making an appearance in the Falcons' final preseason game. On his progress to this point, Falcons QB coach Alex Van Pelt expressed optimism.

"Throwing it really well right now," Van Pelt said. "I love his footwork. We've done a lot of under-center work with him in these 7-on-7 periods to get him comfortable from under center. I'm just really proud of the way he's progressed. Can't wait for him to get back."

Starters are expected to take the field in the Falcons' Week 3 preseason game against the Miami Dolphins, giving Kevin Stefanski a better idea of where things lean with both QBs healthy.

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