MLB Home Run Race: Kyle Schwarber Favored Over Yordan Alvarez in Kalshi Prediction Market

To the delight of Phillies fans, Kyle Schwarber is pulling away in the regular-season home run race, leaving Yordan Alvarez way behind. Through August, Schwarber claimed the lead not only on the leaderboard but in Kalshi’s MLB market as well.

Schwarber has a 48% advantage on Alvarez with a 58% price to lead all players. Kalshi settles the market based on which player has the most home runs by the end of the regular season. A $10 trade on Schwarber profits $6.47.

MLB Home Run Leader - Kalshi

Kyle Schwarber 59%
Yordan Alvarez 12%
Junior Caminero 10%
Matt Olson 9%

Pulling Ahead

After Yordan Alvarez led the MLB in home runs for most of the season, Kyle Schwarber stormed to the top in August with his six home runs, while it's been a slow month for Alvarez, whose monthly total is just one. Alvarez last hit a home run on August 14 against the Seattle Mariners, while Schwarber has homered in two of his last three games.

Across the entire season, Schwarber totaled more monthly home runs than Alvarez three times since March and tied with Alvarez in April.

Air Yordan Remains Within Striking Distance

At the time of writing, Schwarber (39) has a three-run advantage over Alvarez (36), however, Air Yordan cannot be counted out just yet. Especially with his second-best .320 batting average.

Something to keep in mind as well is that Schwarber’s hot streak might run dry to finish the season with eight of his final nine series in the regular season coming against top-15 pitching rotations. On the other hand, Alvarez has a chance to catch up with five of his final nine series against bottom-five rotations.

The two will play one another down the road with the Houston Astros going on the road to take on the Phillies on September 8. By then, we should have a clearer look at where things stand.

Both take the field on Wednesday with Schwarber wrapping up the series against the Seattle Mariners at 4:10 p.m. EST and Alvarez in his second game of the series against the New York Yankees at 7:05 p.m. EST.

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