Yordan Álvarez Extends AL MVP Lead on Kalshi Prediction Market

Yordan Alvarez is as close to a lock as it gets for AL MVP, and Kalshi’s MLB market agrees as he’s the overwhelming favorite at 91%. He entered 2026 at just 3% and quickly stormed to the top.

His 91% price holds an 84-percentage-point edge over Junior Caminero at 7%. Only three others sit at or above 2% in Caminero, Dillon Dingler, and Bobby Witt Jr.

AL MVP winner - Kalshi

Yordan Alvarez 91%
Junior Caminero 7%
Bobby Witt Jr. 3%
Dillon Dingler 2%

Air Yordan continues rising

Since late May, it’s been nothing but up for Alvarez’s price. He sat at 9% just before June, finished the month over 50% at 52%, climbed to 83% in July, and added eight percentage points to that so far through August.

Alvarez is having a career-best season in 2026, with 145 hits in 455 at-bats, 36 home runs, 84 runs, 88 RBIs and a .319 average. At the time of writing, his home run total is one shy of tying his career high, while his batting average is already a career best. His average, home runs and RBI total currently lead the American League.

The Astros have also surged since the All-Star break, going 17-13 and rising to fifth in the AL and first in the AL West.

Alvarez and the Astros have 11 series remaining in the regular season, where he could very well solidify the AL MVP, as six of them are against bottom-15 pitching rotations in the league, with five against bottom-10 rotations. That includes the Athletics twice, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Kansas City Royals and the Seattle Mariners.

He’s had a slow August compared to previous months, totaling 17 hits for 10 runs, 12 RBIs, and just one home run. He’ll have a chance to raise his stock even more in the Astros' next outing against the Athletics, starting on Friday, August 21, through Sunday, August 23. He’ll face the Athletics once more in a four-game series to finish the regular season.

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