New College Football Favorite Emerges on Kalshi as Texas Stumbles

The horns are down as Texas lost control of the top spot on prediction market boards to win the National Championship. In the most recent update to Kalshi’s college football board, Oregon is now the favorite to win the National Championship.

While Oregon takes over at 12%, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish join Texas with an 11% chance on the board as the only three teams with a 10% trading price or higher.

College Football National Championship Winner - Kalshi

Oregon 12%
Texas 11%
Notre Dame 11%

At the current trading prices, Oregon would profit $73.30 on a $10 trade while both Texas and Notre Dame offer a $80.90 profit should they win the national championship, also on a $10 stake.

The Ducks are flying

Oregon regaining the top spot was inevitable. It was the favorite for nearly half of June, and back and forth between it, Texas and Notre Dame, with the most recent price pushing it ahead.

The Ducks returned arguably the best quarterback in college football this season in Dante Moore, a projected top-10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. They also have a top-5 recruiting class to look forward to, which includes four five-star signees. Four-star transfers in safety Koi Perich, defensive lineman D’antre Robinson, and tight end Andrew Olesh lead the transfer class.

The name of the game for Oregon this season, though, is progression, specifically in the wide receiver room, which is amongst the best in the country. Senior Evan Stewart will get his chance to lead the room coming off a 613-yard, five-touchdown season last year.

Both Jeremiah McClellan and Dakorien Moore head into their sophomore seasons with momentum at 500+ yard and three touchdowns seasons to show for as well.

Tough road ahead for Texas

Texas clearly has the talent. The only thing standing between it and a title is the torturous schedule this season, featuring Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU, and Texas A&M. Three of those are road games as well. If Texas survives this gauntlet, fatigue and injuries could be a factor before the playoffs.

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