NFL Playoff Prediction Market Insights: Jags, Bears, Cowboys on Cusp

Roughly two months before the NFL season, prediction markets are buzzing on the Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears, and Dallas Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs.

On Kalshi’s latest NFL playoff market, the three of them are hovering around a 50% chance to make the postseason.

NFL Playoff Qualifiers

Jacksonville Jaguars 54%
Chicago Bears 52%
Dallas Cowboys 52%

Kalshi grades this market on whether or not either of these teams will make the playoffs. If they clinch the playoffs, the market will grade “yes,” if they don’t, it’ll grade “no.” Both Dallas and Chicago at 52% profit of $8.59 at a $10 risk. Jacksonville’s 54% profits $7.92.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is coming off its second playoff appearance with Trevor Lawrence, and prediction markets are hinting at another next season. The Jags biggest loss this offseason is running back Travis Etienne. Bhayshul Tuten is poised to lead the backfield. Chris Rodriguez also signed with Jacksonville.

Lawrence is coming off a top-10 season, throwing for 4,007 yards and 20 touchdowns. He added a career-high 359 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns as well.

ESPN's projections match Kalshi exactly at a 54% chance to make the playoffs. They’re also projecting a 9-8 finish and 34.9% chance to win the AFC South behind the Houston Texans.

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has finished under a .500 record and out of the playoffs in two consecutive seasons. In those seasons, it finished 31st and 32nd on defense. That said, Dallas made defense a clear priority this offseason.

Jerry Jones loaded up on defense in free agency and the NFL Draft, adding CB Cobie Durant, SS Jalen Thompson, and LB Rashan Gary as free agents. The Cowboys also selected five defensive players in the 2026 NFL Draft, highlighted by safety Caleb Downs and edge rusher Malachi Lawrence in the first round.

With offense not an issue at 27.7 points last season, a stronger defense should boost their playoff chances.

Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams exploded in his second season (3,942 yards, 27 TDs) for top-10 passing numbers, leading Chicago to its first playoff win since 2010.

Chicago is young and confident in its player development. Enough so that they made minimal offseason moves. Linebacker Devin Bush was added to bulk up the midfield defensive presence, while Coby Young and rookie Dillon Thieneman add help in the secondary.

There is a 26% chance for Chicago to win the NFC North behind the Detroit Lions (34%) and Green Bay Packers (27%), in what is expected to be a close race for the division title.

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