NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction Market Tightening Up

NFL training camps are well underway, and the race for the Rookie of the Year is starting to heat up. Jeremiyah Love leads Kalshi’s NFL ROY market, followed by Fernando Mendoza, Carnell Tate, Jadarian Price, and Jordyn Tyson.

These are the only five players on the board over a 10% price to win the Rookie of the Year, and are all only separated by a 6% margin. Trading on Love to win as the favorite would profit $93.35 on a $25 trade.

NFL Rookie of the Year winner - Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love 20%
Fernando Mendoza 18%
Carnell Tate 15%
Jadarian Price 14%
Jordyn Tyson 14%

Top spots not secured yet

While Love and Mendoza lead as the top two favored prices, neither Love nor Mendoza has locked down the starting job yet. Reports out of training camp show that Tyler Allgeier opened as the lead running back. This isn’t to say that Love won’t be featured, but more of a committee backfield than one sole contributor.

The Cardinals signed Allgeier to a two-year, $12.5 million contract, a hefty price for a running back, while the Arizona Cardinals paid the third overall pick in the 2026 draft for Love.

As for Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak decided on Kirk Cousins as the team’s starter for training camp. However, he noted that it will be a competition for the top spot before the season.

"For every position, there's gotta be competition, right? The best player has to play, and that's not just what I'm gonna see," Kubiak said. "You guys are gonna see it in the preseason games. We as coaches, we're gonna see who the best guard is, the best quarterback, across the board. There's battles everywhere on the roster. It's important for me to be fair to the players to put the best player out there.”

Expanded roles

Behind Love and Mendoza, Carnell Tate, Jadarian Price, and Jordyn Tyson could carve out nice roles early on in the season. The Tennessee Titans drafted Tate fourth overall. All signs from training camp note his fast-growing chemistry with Cam Ward, setting him up to potentially lead the receiving core.

Price went last in the first round to the Seattle Seahawks and steps into a running back room that just lost Kenneth Walker, the reigning Super Bowl MVP. While he’ll split time with Zach Charbonnet, Charbonnet primarily handled goal-line work, leaving early down work up for grabs for Price.

As for Jordyn Tyson, he steps into a New Orleans Saints receiver room in which Chris Olave is the only player with guaranteed targets. Tyson was drafted with the eighth overall pick, meaning the team could look to involve him as well, given the price the team paid.

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