Deshaun Watson Pulling Away in Browns Starting QB Prediction Market at Kalshi

It’s the better of two evils in Cleveland, with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders competing for the QB1 role. In the most recent update on Kalshi’s NFL market, Watson is pulling away with the job.

Watson holds a massive edge, and the market prices him at 84%, while Sanders sits at 14%. Watson has been favored since taking over the top spot in late April.

Cleveland Browns Week 1 Starting QB - Kalshi

Deshaun Watson 84%
Shedeur Sanders 14%

A $10 trade profits 1.76 if Watson wins the QB1 job and $52.86 if it’s Sanders. Kalshi grades the market based on who the Cleveland Browns announce as QB1.

Pulling ahead

It’s safe to say that coming into the competition, Watson had the upper hand given his contract. Watson is in the final year of his fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract in which he earns roughly $46 million this season.

This is also Cleveland’s last chance to make right on its 2022 trade for Watson. Since trading for the three-time Pro Bowl QB and waiting out his suspension, he hasn’t stayed healthy, having played just 19 games and missing the entire 2025 season.

As far as how the competition itself is going, Watson started and played the first half of the Browns' first preseason game against the Chicago Bears. He went 11-of-16 for 126 yards and no touchdowns. Sanders saw a limited run, going 6-of-11 for 79 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Sanders will get the start and an extended run in the Browns' second preseason game.

It’s also worth considering the experience. Watson comes into the season as a seven-year vet and has shown what he could do when fully healthy. In his last fully healthy season in 2020, he went for 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, 444 rush yards, and three rushing touchdowns.

We did get a feel for Sanders last season as well in the eight appearances he made, seven of them starts. He threw for 1,400 yards, seven touchdowns, and 10 interceptions at a 56.6 completion rate.

The competition will continue on Saturday, August 22, when the Cleveland Browns take on the Buffalo Bills.

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