TJ Watt Trade Market Market: Kalshi Weighs Steelers vs Cardinals

Watt is happening in Steel City? Prediction markets are suggesting the Pittsburgh Steelers may move on from T.J. Watt.

On Kalshi’s NFL trade market, Pittsburgh is favored to keep Watt, but the Arizona Cardinals loom as a potential trade partner.

TJ Watt Next Team

Pittsburgh Steelers 83%
Arizona Cardinals 11%
Retires/No Team 11%

His 83% odds to stay in Pittsburgh offer a potential $1.90 profit at a $10 risk. Both the No Team/Retire and Arizona options at 11% are paying out $75.54. Kalshi grades this market on December 1st, 2026, and whichever team he is on beyond that date is where they’ll payout.

The case to trade

Watt, who tied the NFL single-season sack record back in 2021, has declined steadily over the past two seasons. After posting 19 sacks in 2023, he dropped to 11.5 in 2024 and just seven in 2025. Both Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig recorded more sacks.

Hinting at a trade, Pittsburgh made its decision on the 24-year-old Herbig by extending him to a four-year, $100-million contract, leaving the team to choose between Highsmith and Watt.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler gave his take on a potential Watt trade before the extension was offered to Herbig.

“If the Steelers end up signing Herbig long term, having three large contracts allocated to one position is a tough proposition. Watt, for all his greatness, turns 32 in October and has guaranteed salaries of $32 million in both 2026 and 2027. Watt is a legacy player, something Pittsburgh values more than most. But some teams could see Pittsburgh at least considering moving on from him.”

Following the blockbuster trade that netted the Cleveland Browns Jared Verse and first-, second- and third-round picks, Pittsburgh could be enticed to seek a similar haul for Watt.

Why the Cardinals make sense

It’s no secret that the Arizona Cardinals have a weakness on the defensive line. Arizona totaled just 30 sacks last season, the third fewest in the NFL. It doesn’t help that their 2025 sack leader, Josh Sweat, requested a trade.

With a down year from Watt, a fresh start could be what he needs, and Arizona could be willing to pay the price.

He also wouldn't be the first Watt brother to land in Arizona, as J.J. Watt also finished out his career with the Cardinals.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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