Tua Tagovailoa Pulling Away as Falcons Starting QB in Kalshi Prediction Market

In the battle of the lefties, Tua Tagovailoa is quickly pulling away from Michael Penix Jr. in the Atlanta Falcons QB1 battle. Kalshi shows Tua's chances of being the Week 1 starter growing rapidly.

Both had underwhelming 2025 seasons. Tua threw for 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions with a 37.5 QB rating, while Penix was pulled early once in Week 3 before tearing his ACL in Week 11.

Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa 69%
Michael Penix Jr. 40%
Trevor Siemian 5%

Kalshi’s NFL futures market's current prices pay out $4.45 profit on a $10 trade if Tua is the Week 1 starter, and $12.92 on $10 if it’s Penix. Kalshi will grade the market based on who takes the first snap of the 2026 regular season.

Tua’s head start

Atlanta insiders believe the former Dolphins quarterback already holds the edge. ESPN’s Marc Raimondi wrote that Tagovailoa has somewhat of a head start in the offense despite Penix Jr. going into his third season with the team.

“Tagovailoa has been able to do everything, and Stefanski is on record saying he believes accuracy is the most important trait for a quarterback, something Tagovailoa historically has had in abundance. None of this means Tagovailoa will for sure win the job, especially if Penix impresses in training camp. But Tagovailoa might have something of a head start in this new offense.”

Several other NFL insiders report along the same lines, with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Louis Riddick both saying accuracy is what’s propping Tua up in this battle.

Penix Jr. still hasn’t been cleared from his torn ACL, with training camp just weeks away, making Tagovailoa’s case even stronger.

Market movement

Tua took over as the favorite to win the QB1 job on May 28 and hasn’t given up that spot since. His previous peak was June 3, when he sat at 65.6% and has remained in that area since. He’s jumped nearly 4% since, while Penix Jr. took a 4% dip.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Add us as a preferred source on Google