NL MVP Prediction Market: Pete Crow-Armstrong Takes Biggest Lead Over Shohei Ohtani

Pete Crow-Armstrong continues pulling away from Shohei Ohtani on the National League MVP board on Kalshi MLB market. In under a week, Crow-Armstrong has taken the lead over Ohtani, extended that lead to over 10%, and now sits at a nearly 30% advantage.

Pete Crow-Armstrong currently has a 64% chance of winning the NL MVP, while Shohei Ohtani is at 37%. At those prices, a $10 trade profits $5.23 on Crow-Armstrong and $16.58 on Ohtani.

NL MVP winner - Kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong 64%
Shohei Ohtani 37%

Crow-Armstrong Continues Making Strides

Pete Crow-Armstrong first took the lead on Kalshi on August 18 with 52% to Ohtani’s 50%. Two days later, on August 20, Crow-Armstrong pulled ahead to a 13% lead. Now six days later, that lead has grown to nearly 30% as PCA has been extremely active this week.

Since taking the lead on August 18, Crow-Armstrong went for five hits, three home runs, five RBIs, and four total runs, on 27 at-bats and all above his .276 season batting average.

In that same stretch, since losing the lead on Kalshi, Ohtani’s played in four games for just two hits and three total runs in 14 at-bats. He did not record a home run or RBI.

Crow-Armstrong will have a chance to strengthen his case as the season winds down with three series coming against bottom-15 pitching rotations including the Cincinnati Reds in the bottom-10.

There is still some optimism on Ohtani’s end though with six of his remaining nine series in the regular season coming against bottom-15 rotations.

Reports from Jon Morosi of MLB Network also suggest that Ohtani could return to pitching as soon as Sunday, August 30, against the Detroit Tigers.

“Shohei Ohtani starting on the mound Sunday in Detroit is a ‘possibility,’ Dave Roberts told reporters. The Dodgers' pitching plans for the weekend hinge on Ohtani's work today, which will be either a bullpen session or facing live hitters in Atlanta.”

Crow-Armstrong’s next series comes on Friday against the Reds while Ohtani is finishing up his series against the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday and Thursday.

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