Novak Djokovic Retirement Market Spiking on Kalshi

All good things must come to an end, and the end might be near for one of tennis’s greats, Novak Djokovic. After the loss, Kalshi’s market on Djokovic retiring before the 2027 season jumped to 25%.

The market currently offers prices on Djokovic to retire either before the 2027 season or the 2028 season. Kalshi settles the market based on which season Djokovic announces his retirement before. A $10 trade profits $28 before the 2027 season and $9.69 before the 2028 season.

Novak Djokovic Retirement

Before 2027 season 25%
Before 2028 season 49%

A rough outing

The market spiked in favor of a retirement following Djokovic suffering his first loss in the first round of the tournament and his first first-round loss in a Grand Slam tournament since 2006.

The loss came in a 4-hour, 36-minute battle against Argentina’s Mariano Navone, losing 6-7 (5-7), 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, and 1-6.

Following the early defeat, Djokovic spoke about his health and body giving up early in the match, mentioning both vomiting and gagging, per tennis insider Jose Morgado.

"It’s something that I’ve been carrying, unfortunately, pretty much every match this year: vomiting, throwing up, a serious issue there (...) my whole body starts to collapse, cramping and pain. The back just gave up in the end and the shoulder too.”

Asked about his future after another physically rough season, Djokovic said he wants to understand what is happening to his body. His comments are what spiked his retirement price on Kalshi.

"I don't know," he said. "At the moment, I don't want to go into too much detail. I'm just trying to understand what's going on and how much longer I can keep going like this."

Many call Djokovic the greatest of all time. He has 101 singles titles, including 24 Grand Slams. 2023 was his last dominant run, when he won the Australian Open, US Open, and French Open. Most recently, he lost in the 2026 Australian Open final to Carlos Alcaraz and the 2026 Wimbledon semifinals to Jannik Sinner. The 2023 U.S. Open was his last major championship title.

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