Nurmagomedov vs. Song Kalshi Market Gives Nurmagomedov Massive Advantage

UFC Fight Night on Saturday features a crucial top-six bantamweight bout between Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong, with a potential title bout in the near future for the winner. As things stand, Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite to win with his cousin Khabib in his corner.

Nurmagomedov has a massive advantage as an 83% favorite, while Kalshi’s UFC market gives Yadong just a 17% chance to win. A $10 trade on Nurmagomedov profits just $1.90, while it profits $45.58 on Yadong.

Umar Nurmagomedov Vs. Song Yadong - Kalshi

Nurmagomedov 83%
Yadong 17%

Overwhelming Across the Board

Per usual out of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s camps, his fighters come in as massive favorites, and have the advantage in nearly every aspect and this is no different. Umar is 20-1 for his career with his only loss against Merab for the Bantamweight title. He fights a patient style with just seven submissions and two knockout wins.

He’s shown versatility both standing up and on the ground. He averages 4.03 takedowns per bout at 46% accuracy and defends the takedown at 79%. Upright, he lands 3.86 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy while only absorbing 1.86 at a 39% accuracy.

Yadong is not as efficient and not known for his accuracy. He averages just 0.82 takedowns per bout at a 41% clip. His striking accuracy also sits below 50% at 43% with 4.34 significant strikes landed per minute. His absorption is eye opening as well taking 3.81 per minute at 45% accuracy.

If, and when this fight gets to the ground, expect Nurmagomedov to have full control the rest of the way. In his last two fights since losing to Merab, he went a combined 13 for 20 on takedown attempts for over 15 minutes of ground control in both bouts. He landed over 60% of his strikes and won both by unanimous decision.

Yadong comes in losing two of his last four bouts and to two of the division’s top contenders in Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley.

Main card coverage for UFC Fight Night begins at 6 a.m. EST on Paramount+ from Shanghai, China.

If you're looking for a promo code for Kalshi, enter SIBONUS at sign-up — you only need a $10 deposit and $25 in trades to unlock up to a $500 bonus.

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