Seeing Double: Shohei Ohtani Cy Young and MVP Winner Market on Kalshi

One of the more interesting MLB prediction markets being offered right now is on Shohei Ohtani to win both the Cy Young and MVP, which are currently trading at 17.9% on Kalshi.

Both separate markets for the NL Cy Young and NL MVP tell two different stories as far as Shohei is concerned. The MVP is his to lose per Kalshi’s board. Work needs to be done for him to catch up in the Cy Young race.

Looking at what Ohtani has done thus far in 51 games played, he has a .269 average with an OBP of .400 in 193 at-bats. He’s totaled 52 hits for 36 total runs, including nine home runs.

On the mound, he is 5-2, which is top-20 in the MLB. He’s recorded 61 strikeouts, which is top-40, and is absolutely dominating with a historic 0.82 ERA to this point. Across 55 innings pitched, he’s allowed just seven total runs on 28 total hits.

MVP Dominance

NL MVP Race - Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani 78%
Elly De La Cruz 4%
Matt Olson 3%
James Wood 2%

Since opening in February, the market has favored Ohtani strongly. He’s had a 50% chance to win the NL MVP for the better part of the season. For the last month and a half, he’s continued to see his percentage rise, going from exactly 52% on April 4 to above 70% on May 20.

Cy Young With Vaue

NL Cy Young Winner - Kalshi

Cristopher Sanchez 38%
Jacob Misiorowski 21%
Shohei Ohtani 18%

His percentage to win the NL Cy Young has been one of the most volatile graphs of the season. He originally opened at 6%, fell down to 3%, which was his season low. He’s climbed above and fallen below the 20% mark a total of nine times this year.

Where things sit now, over the last week, since May 26, he’s begun to ascend. On the 26th, he had an 11% chance; he worked his way up to a 16% chance on the 27th and finally hit 18% by the time of writing on the 29th.

Historically Speaking

For Ohtani, a Cy Young Award is one of the few major accolades that is missing from his trophy case. As for the MVP, he is no stranger to the award, having won it four times, all of which came in the last five seasons.

He claimed two of them in the American League in 2021 and 2023 while he was still with the Los Angeles Angels. In the two seasons that he’s been with the LA Dodgers in the National League, he’s won it in both seasons.

If Shohei were to win both the Cy Young and MVP, he would become just the 12th pitcher all-time to do so, joining the likes of Sandy Koufax, Willie Hernandez, and Roger Clemens, to name a few. He would also be just the third player to do so post 2000, joining Justin Verlander (2011) and Clayton Kershaw (2014).

Reading The Markets

At a 17.9% ($10 to win $45.03) chance to win both awards, Ohtani is seen as a bit of an underdog here, similar to where his 18% ($10 to win $42.5) Cy Young chances are. His MVP percentage tells a much different story as a heavier favorite at 78% ($10 to win $2.61).

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Add us as a preferred source on Google