Shohei Ohtani MVP Market Falling as Pete Crow-Armstrong Rises

Is it panic time for Shohei Ohtani’s National League MVP price? Kalshi thinks so as the Chicago Cubs center fielder, Pete Crow-Armstrong, continues to cut into Ohtani’s price to win the league MVP.

Ohtani peaked at a 93% price on Kalshi’s NL MVP market in early July. Around the same time, Kalshi listed PCA at just 1%. His elite play over the last two months has aggressively pushed his price up the board and now into contention. A $10 trade currently pays $5.70 on Ohtani and $13.97 on PCA.

2026 NL MVP Winner - Kalshi

Shohei Ohtani 62%
Pete Crow-Armstrong 40%

PCA out of nowhere

Pete Crow-Armstrong is on pace for a career year to this point, totaling 24 home runs, 63 RBI, and 115 hits on a .284 average. He also sits in the top-10 of the National League with a 6.5 WAR (1st), .950 OPS (5th), .382 OBP (6th), and .538 SLG (7th).

He was a late bloomer, though. Through May, he had 53 hits, seven home runs, 26 RBI, a .237 avg., .327 OBP, .388 SLG, and .715 OPS.

Over the last two months in June and July, most of his numbers sit at the top of the league with 62 hits, 16 home runs, 35 RBI, a .343 avg., .454 OBP, .713 SLG, and 1.167 OPS. It also helps that the Cubs sit with a 61-47 record and in the top-5 of the league.

Injuries forcing Ohtani down

While his hitting remains one of the best in the league and, in some cases, ahead of PCA, a lingering knee injury has diminished his two-way ability as a pitcher. This dates back to early June and has forced him to skip over his starting pitcher rotation and even out of the All-Star game.

The injury has limited him to just 10 starts and 14 total appearances on the mound. He has an 8-2 starting record and an elite 1.79 ERA.

With his role limited to designated hitter and Pete Crow-Armstrong’s rise as a hitter himself, a bigger shift could be coming on Kalshi’s NL MVP board. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs have an upcoming series at Wrigley Field starting on August 3rd.

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