Tarik Skubal Trade Market Tanking on Kalshi Amidst Tigers Resurgence

The Tigers are roaring up several prediction market boards, which led Kalshi to adjust its price on whether or not Tarik Skubal will be traded. Along with the Tigers’ hot streak, Skubal’s trade price has dropped, and several Detroit futures have climbed.

Kalshi’s MLB trade market currently lists Skubal with a 37% chance of being traded before the August 3rd MLB trade deadline.

Will Tarik Skubal be traded? - Kalshi

Yes 37%
No 70%

At his 37% price to be moved, a $10 trade profits $16.31 if he is traded. Kalshi set an August 5th deadline, with the market being graded on whether or not he is traded by then.

Tigers rise

Many analysts viewed the Detroit Tigers as dead weight before June 29, sitting with a 35-49 record and in fourth place in the AL Central. At that time, Skubal carried a 70% trade price.

From June 29 on, Detroit completely flipped the script, going 12-4, including a 9-3 run to finish the first half of the year and 3-1 since coming out of the break. On the Tigers' current run, they’ve impressed, going 8-2 on the road and 4-1 at home for a +28 run margin (74-46).

Skubal has dominated as usual in his four starts on the run, going 3-1. Across 22 innings, Skubal has a 2.05 ERA, allowing five runs (three earned) on 15 hits and 32 strikeouts.

Skubal staying put

Before June 29, Skubal looked like a sure trade candidate on his expiring contract. His trade probability flipped from 70% to under 40%.

The Tigers have a real shot at claiming a wild card spot, sitting just 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners in sixth. Their playoff odds have jumped from 4% in late May to 29%.

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported that the belief around the league is that Detroit won’t be moving Skubal.

“The growing sentiment among rival executives is that the Tigers will hold onto Skubal beyond the Aug. 3 deadline, in the leadup to his free agency, and give themselves every chance to make a run in 2026.”

Detroit next plays on Tuesday night at 8:05 p.m. EST on the road against the Chicago Cubs.

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