Tour Championship Kalshi Markets Lopsided at the Top

All eyes are on Scottie Scheffler at the top of Kalshi’s Tour Championship market with a massive advantage over the rest of the field. Scottie opens as a massive 22% favorite to win his second Tour Championship.

At the time of writing, Scheffler holds an edge of more than 13 percentage points over the rest of the field with Rory McIlroy the next closest price at 8.2%. A $10 trade on Scheffler to win the Tour Championship profits $33.09.

Tour Championship winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 22%
Rory McIlroy 8.2%
Xander Schauffele 5.7%
Wyndham Clark 5.5%
Ludvig Åberg 4.9%
Sam Burns 5%
Cameron Young 4.4%
Patrick Cantlay 4.4%

Scheffler’s to lose

The way Kalshi is leaning, this is Scottie Scheffler’s tournament to lose. Scheffler comes in having dominated this season with 12 top-five finishes and two wins, at The American Express and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Last week at the BMW Championship, he finished T12.

He generally performs well at the Tour Championship. In his six consecutive appearances since 2020, he has five top-10 finishes including a win in 2024 shooting 20-under (which translated to 30-under in the old scoring system with a starting stroke advantage). He’s gone into the last four Tour Championships as the No. 1 ranked player.

Could Rory’s experience play a role?

Rory McIlroy comes in tied for the most Tour Championship wins in history with three. A win here would break the tie with Tiger Woods. He has nine top-10 finishes in his previous 12 appearances.

Looking at the 2026 season, Rory’s had a rocky run with high highs and low lows. He has five top-10 and three top-five finishes, plus a Masters win, across 13 starts this season. On the flip side, he has five finishes outside of the top-15 including four out of the top-25.

Recent form raises questions after a T40 at the Open Championship and 66th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He did finish third at the BMW Championship last week.

The Tour Championship tees off on Thursday, August 27 and runs until Sunday, August 30 from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

New users can enter the Kalshi bonus code SIBONUS at registration to earn up to a $500 welcome bonus on one of the top-rated prediction market apps available today.

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