UFC Fight Night Kalshi Prediction Market for Medić vs. Rodriguez

A welterweight bout between Uros Medić and Daniel Rodriguez headlines UFC Fight Night this weekend, with both fighters looking to climb the rankings toward a title shot. Kalshi heavily favors Medić based on his track record.

Medić sits as the favorite at 76% on Kalshi's UFC market while Rodriguez is a sizeable underdog at 24%. Trading $10 profits $2.77 on Medić and $29.54 if Rodriguez is victorious.

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez - Kalshi

Uros Medić 76%
Daniel Rodriguez 24%

Accuracy heavily leans Medić

These are two of the highest striking welterweights in the division, with Medić averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute while Rodriguez lands 7.2 per minute.

Medić’s accuracy makes him the heavy favorite. He’s landing his strikes at an efficient 62.16% success rate. He lands strikes at 62.16%, an 11.26% edge over Rodriguez’s 50.9%.

Medić’s accuracy has led to a massive 100% finish rate across all 16 of his pro bouts, including 11 of his 13 wins by KO/TKO.

Rodriguez’s strike defense hurts his case. He absorbs a significant 5.4 opposing significant strikes per minute. Against an opponent with the accuracy and strike totals of Medić, it makes this a nightmarish matchup for him.

Props to watch

All signs are pointing towards this one ending early and rightfully so. Medić’s striking has produced eight of his 11 career knockouts in the first round. Rodriguez goes into this one 3-3 over his last six bouts, including a first-round knockout.

Will the fight go the distance?

Yes 13%
No 93%

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Yes 86%
No 33%

Medić to win by KO/TKO?

Yes 69%
No 33%

Blachowicz's fall expected to continue vs. Navajo Stirling

Navajo Stirling 75%
Jan Blachowicz 25%

A light heavyweight bout between Navajo Stirling and Jan Blachowicz takes place in the co-main event. Blachowicz is well past his prime title-fighting days, while Stirling is one of the hottest names in the division.

Blachowicz has won just once in his last six fights, with three losses and two draws. Stirling is a perfect 10-0 with six knockout wins, including two second-round KO/TKO wins in his last two bouts.

Stirling lands 6.24 at 54% accuracy with tremendous defense, only absorbing 2.62 strikes per minute and allowing opponents to land at just 42%. Blachowicz’s power just isn’t there at 3.55 strikes per minute at 50% accuracy, while allowing 3.14 at a 52% clip.

UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, August 1st in Belgrade, Serbia. Prelims begin at 10 a.m. EST with main card coverage at 1 p.m. EST.

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