USA World Cup Prediction Market Odds to Advance to Knockout Stage are Shaky

It isn’t expected to be an easy ride for Team USA in the 2026 World Cup. Their chances of advancing to the knockout stage are a bit uneasy. Prediction markets have the Americans favored to win their group, but not by much.

Group D winner - Kalshi

USA 40%
Turkey 36%
Paraguay 17%
Australia 10%

With a 40% chance to win Group D on Kalshi’s World Cup market, Team USA would payout $13.97 at a $10 stake, while Turkey is paying out $16.58 on a $10 stake if they win the group.

Although the Americans have been favored since the market opened in mid-December, Turkey has been chipping away at its chances to win. The U.S. had a 24% margin over Turkey in late March before the gap thinned to within 10% at the beginning of April, where it has remained.

Why Turkey is gaining steam on the United States

Ahead of the Group Stage, this Turkish team has built strong chemistry, winning both of their World Cup qualifying matches back in March and their two friendlies against North Macedonia and Venezuela. Three of those four matches were shutout wins.

The United States, on the other hand, used its four international friendlies ahead of the group stage as a chance to test different rotations, leading to a 1-3 stretch of matches. They suffered a 5-2 loss to Belgium, a 2-0 loss to Portugal, and a 2-1 loss to Germany. Their only friendly win was a 3-2 showing against Senegal.

History of USA Vs. Group Stage opponents

Group D of the World Cup has the United States, Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia. All opponents that the U.S. has faced previously. They’ve played Turkey five times, splitting the series 2-2-1. Turkey won their most recent match in June 2025.

In seven all-time matches against Paraguay, they’ve gone 5-2 and have won their previous three meetings since 2016. They’ve played and won two matches against the Aussies, with the most recent being a 2-1 win in October 2025.

Other USA World Cup props

Outside of their prediction market to win Group D, we see other markets on what the U.S. stage of elimination will be, as well as the round of 16 qualifiers.

U.S. World Cup stage of elimination

Round of 32 35%
Round of 16 27%
Group Stage 17%
Quarterfinals 15%
Semifinals 6%
Runner-Up 2%
Outright Winner 2%

Round of 16 World Cup Qualifiers

France 79%
Spain 77%
England 75%
Portugal 71%
Brazil 70%
Germany 70%
Argentina 68%
Belgium 62%
Switzerland 60%
Mexico 57%
Netherlands 56%
Norway 55%
Colombia 54%
USA 48%
Turkey 47%

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

Add us as a preferred source on Google