Who Will Allow Fewest Points in the NFL in 2026? Texas Favored to Have Top Defense on Kalshi Prediction Market

The Houston Texans defense was a nightmarish unit last season, and Kalshi’s NFL market is bullish that they’ll be the top defense in the league this season. The Texans lead the board with a 27% chance of allowing the fewest points in the 2026 regular season.

Houston is the only team with a 20% chance to allow the fewest points, while four other teams trail with a 10% chance.

NFL fewest points allowed - Kalshi

Houston Texans 27%
Seattle Seahawks 18%
Denver Broncos 16%
Los Angeles Rams 15%
Philadelphia Eagles 13%

Kalshi settles the market based on which team allows the fewest points throughout the 2026 NFL regular season. A $10 trade on the Texans to allow the fewest points profits $35.22.

Only getting stronger

The core of Houston’s defense stayed put, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter leading the front seven while Derek Stingle Jr. remains the anchor in the secondary. Houston made several complementary and depth moves to bolster the defense even more.

The most notable was safety Reed Blankenship from the Philadelphia Eagles. Blankenship brings nine career interceptions and 23 deflections to an already established secondary.

Houston’s defense led the NFL in fewest yards allowed at 277.2 per game, broken down into 187.2 pass yards and 93.7 rush yards. Both top-10. It came close to leading the league in fewest points at 17.4, only trailing the Seattle Seahawks at 17.2.

Takeaways were a huge factor last season, as the team finished with 29 total, which was the third-most in the league. Houston finished third in interceptions (19) and tied for fourth in fumbles recovered (10).

Getting into the schedule, six games come against teams that ranked in the bottom half in points per game last season. Those are highlighted by two games against the Tennessee Titans as divisional opponents and against the Cleveland Browns. Both bottom three offenses in 2025.

The Houston Texans kick off the regular season in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills.

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