World Cup Kalshi vs Polymarket Odds: Who Offers the Best Value

Under one month out from the 2026 World Cup, there is still plenty of value to be had. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the top-9 teams are the same across both sites, with value varying amongst them.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket 2026 World Cup Odds ($100 Wager)

France: Kalshi ($552), Polymarket ($557)
Spain: Kalshi ($569), Polymarket ($557)
England: Kalshi ($863), Polymarket ($861)
Brazil: Kalshi ($989), Polymarket ($1,034)
Portugal: Kalshi ($989), Polymarket ($909)
Argentina: Kalshi (1,033), Polymarket ($1,171)
Germany: Kalshi ($1,838), Polymarket ($1,868)
Netherlands: Kalshi ($2,601), Polymarket ($2,855)
Norway: Kalshi ($4,069), Polymarket ($3,883)

Within the top-4 made up of France, Spain, England, and Brazil, the shift in value between Kalshi and Polymarket isn't too significant. Germany also falls under that category.

Portugal, Argentina, the Netherlands, and Norway each have $90+ payout differences on a $100 risk.

How We Got Here

It’s been a two-team race between France and Spain for the top spot. On Kalshi, their markets opened back in May 2025, with France boasting 26.6% and Spain down at 16%. Just one day after opening, France fell to 14% while Spain rose to 15.2%.

From mid-May 2025 to mid-April 2026, Spain sat ahead of France until the French took over on April 21st and have been favored since.

At Polymarket, their 2026 World Cup market opened July 2nd, 2025, with France listed at 16.5% and Spain at an even 16%. Similar to Kalshi, Spain took over the top spot just days later. Spain even had a +7.5% advantage at one point in October 2025 when it was listed at 20.5% with France down at 12.5%.

Also on April 21st, Polymarket swapped them with France leading at 16.5% to Spain’s 16%. They’ve been within a 2% margin of one another until they tied on May 26th at 17%.

Argentina beat France in the World Cup final in 2022 in a penalty shootout. England, Portugal, Nertherlands, Croatia, Brazil and Morocco were the other quarterfinalistis.

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