Yankees World Series Market Drops on Kalshi After Aaron Judge News

There are mixed feelings around Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees following the most recent update on his fractured right rib. Kalshi leaned back on the Yankees World Series market to 9.3% following the update.

This is a significant drop on Kalshi’s World Series market, with the Yankees not only falling behind the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers to fourth place on the board, but also below 10%, with the 1.3% drop. Trading $10 on the Yankees to win the World Series at the time of writing, profits $92.17.

2026 World Series Winner - Kalshi

Los Angeles Dodgers 36.8%
Boston Red Sox 10.9%
Milwaukee Brewers 9.8%
New York Yankees 9.3%
Atlanta Braves 7.5%

Aaron Judge update

The last time we saw Aaron Judge was just over two months ago on May 31st, before he suffered a stress fracture in his right rib. The Yankees placed Judge on the 10-day injured list on June 5, then transferred him to the 60-day IL. More than 60 days have passed since the Yankees moved him to the 60-day IL, and there is no concrete timeline for his return. There is a belief from within that he could return at some point in September.

In the most recent update, doctors have cleared Judge for running and upper-body resistance training. Judge and Yankees manager Aaron Boone spoke on the update after Judge’s first day of workouts.

“I’ll be back this season,” Judge said. “I don’t know why I wouldn’t be. That was always the plan, to come back sooner than later, definitely. I never had a thought of not playing this year–I just got the scan (Tuesday) and the minute they said we’re going to start running, I said, ‘All right, I’ll see you outside.”

“It’s more symptom-based now as he starts to introduce things,” Boone said. “So the running outside is new, and some of the upper-body resistance stuff he’ll be able to do. Then as he tolerates that, we’ll start moving into baseball activities at some point.”

Since Judge’s injury, the Yankees have gone 28-27 and rank towards the bottom of the league in batting average (.221, 30th), OBP (.283, 30th), OPS (.672, 27th), and runs per game (3.93, 26th).

The Yankees are 10-9 since coming out of the All-Star break and are gearing up to play the Atlanta Braves in their next series beginning on Friday. They just lost a series to the Cardinals.

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