‘Logical’—Enormous Punishment for Man City’s 115 Premier League Charges Predicted

A new timeline has also been revealed along with an explanation as to why relegation is not on the cards.

Pep Guardiola has lost his patience with the Premier League legal case against Manchester City. | Robbie Jay Barratt-AMA/Getty Images

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has predicted that Manchester City could face an unprecedented penalty of a 60-point deduction if they are found guilty of the more serious allegations in their ongoing legal battle with the Premier League. Demotion to a lower division, however, is not on the cards.

The dispute between City and England’s top flight, which has been billed as the “case of the century,” has been bubbling away since the eight-time Premier League champions were accused of more than 100 breaches in February 2023. City, at the time and over the subsequent three years, have always maintained their innocence.

The investigation by an independent panel ended in December 2024 and 14 months of deafening silence has followed. Pep Guardiola’s predicted timelines have all fallen flat and the Catalan coach has grown increasingly weary when faced with questions on this topic.

In the face of any official word on the outcome, Maguire delivered an intriguing insight into what may await during an appearance on The Overlap.

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Will Man City Be Found Guilty?

Erling Haaland has been practically ever-present for Man City this season. | James Gill-Danehouse/Getty Images

The crux of the Premier League’s allegations revolve around City supposedly artificially inflating their revenues to circumvent the division’s financial fair play rules over a period of nine seasons (2009–18).

UEFA accused City of similar offences and dished out a two-year ban from European competition in February 2020. City appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) which lifted the ban and clear them of “disguising equity funds as sponsorship contribution.” However, this conclusion was made along with the acknowledgement that most of the alleged breaches “were either not established or time-barred.”

There is a five-year cut off in UEFA’s statutes but no such limitation is applied to the Premier League’s rules.

City are confident that they have a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence” to prove their innocence when it comes to the financial allegations. However, Maguire believes that it is “fairly likely” they will be found guilty of “non-cooperation,” which makes up a lot of the charges.

Erling Haaland is certainly confident. The Nordic goal gobbler committed his long-term future to the club during the investigation after being reassured by the club’s hierarchy. “I spoke with the bosses, and in the end, I believe them,” he revealed during last summer’s Club World Cup. “It’s such a tricky situation for me to even sit there and speak about, because I wasn’t really involved in it. So I think the club knows what they’re doing. They will sort it out.”

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Potential Punishments for Man City

Manchester City are no friends of the Premier League. | Visionhaus/Getty Images

Should City be found to have deliberately made the Premier League’s investigation difficult, Maguire predicted that “they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there.” UEFA initially dolled out a €30 million (£26.2 million, $35.4 million) sanction which was later reduced to €10 million on appeal.

The more interesting potential scenarios arise if City are deemed guilty of breaching actual financial fair play regulations.

“The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL,” Maguire revealed. “Therefore, it has to be a points deduction.

“If we take a look at precedence, we have had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it is far bigger.

“The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant. I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.”

It all depends on the outcome. Were City to be proven to have committed corporate fraud, Maguire suggests that there could be “a complete restructure of the club.”

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When Will Man City Learn Their Verdict?

Manchester City could be reeling. | Michael Regan/UEFA/UEFA/Getty Images

“I think we’re probably into the final reaches of getting a decision,” Maguire hopefully predicted.

“I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgment. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult. So that’s delayed the case. It should be resolved in the next few months.”

Maguire conceded that this timeline has been presented before and opened himself up to any outcome.

“If it comes out the week before the end of the season, it would be catastrophic in many ways,” he added. “From what I understand, both the Premier League and Manchester City will probably be given 24 hours notice of the verdict to allow their lawyers to go away and check the small print of it. It could be on the day of the World Cup final for all we know.”

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