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The Favorites to Win Each Group at 2026 World Cup
12 groups, 48 teams and 72 matches. This summer’s expanded World Cup group stage delivers more drama than ever before.
The United States, Canada and Mexico will host a festival of soccer this summer, as nations from all six continental federations lock horns during a tantalizing group stage. Minnows face behemoths, giants collide and debutants enjoy their maiden voyage.
While only one third of teams will be eliminated come the end of the opening round, topping the four-team group offers a favorable draw in the last 32. On paper, group winners will come up against easier opponents in the first knockout round.
The fight for first matters, and here’s how Sports Illustrated believes it will pan out across each group.
Group A: Mexico
Group A Teams: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia
Mexico, as one of the three host nations, was automatically placed in Pot 1 for December’s group stage draw. Despite only currently placing 15th in the FIFA rankings, it has the advantage of avoiding the world’s big-hitters, instead meeting inferior opponents.
While Mexico enters the tournament in uncertain form, it should still top Group A with the help of the home crowd. South Korea and Czechia will offer stern tests, while South Africa has the capacity to spring a surprise, but it’s El Tri that is most likely to finish on top.
Group B: Switzerland
Group B Teams: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Canada boasts the same luxury as Mexico, placed in Pot 1 and handed a more favorable group. However, the world’s 30th best nation may still struggle to finish first, even if it has a strong chance of reaching the knockout phase.
Instead, it could be Switzerland who tops the statistically weakest group at the tournament. The Europeans have a wealth of experience at major tournaments and a well-rounded squad—certainly bulkier than the roster possessed by either Qatar or Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Group C: Brazil
Group C Teams: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
It’s hardly bold to predict Brazil to rise to the summit of Group C, although it could well face stiff competition from 2022 semifinalists Morocco. The African side have ascended to eighth in the FIFA rankings and are ready to capitalize on any Brazilian slip-ups.
Still, the Seleção should top the standings as it hunts for a record-extending sixth world tile, with Scotland and particularly Haiti likely offering little resistance to the South Americans and Morocco.
Group D: United States
Group D Teams: United States, Australia, Paraguay, Türkiye
Expectations are through the roof for the United States at a home World Cup, especially with Mauricio Pochettino at the helm. Similarly to Mexico and Canada, its placement in Pot 1 gives it a slightly easier ride in the group stage.
The Stars and Stripes should deliver on their promise, but UEFA playoff winner Türkiye appears their major contender for top spot. A young squad brimming with talent will ensure a hard-fought fight for first, with Australia and Paraguay not to be underestimated either.
Group E: Germany
Group E Teams: Germany, Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao
Germany has underwhelmed at World Cups since winning the competition in 2014 and while it’s yet to return to its lofty historical heights, it should have no issues easing to first in Group E.
Ecuador impressed in qualifying and could provide a shock or two in North America, but Germany should still prove too powerful. Côte d'Ivoire is no longer the force it once was when boasting the likes of Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, while debutant Curaçao appears unlikely to make much impact.
Group F: Netherlands
Group F Teams: Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden
Group F promises to be one of this summer’s most competitive. Naturally, the Netherlands is the leading favorite, and should have the strength in depth and individual star power to clinch first place, but its path is obstructed by strong opposition.
Japan, fresh from beating England in March, will fancy its chances of pulling off an upset like it did in 2022 by beating Spain and Germany in the group stage, while UEFA qualifier Sweden has the attacking muscle to cause problems. Even Tunisia can provide a shock.
Group G: Belgium
Group G Teams: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Belgium was often considered among the competition favorites during the 2010s, but its golden generation is no more. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois cling on, but the lack of depth and quality in defense has become a problem.
Still, the Belgians should lead their relatively simple group this summer, Egypt their next closest challengers. The participation of Iran remains unknown and New Zealand, the OFC’s sole representative, shouldn’t lay a glove on its Group G competitors.
Group H: Spain
Group H Teams: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
For European champions Spain, there is only one genuine contender in Group H: Uruguay. The former two-time world champs are led by Marcelo Bielsa, a coach capable of upsetting the established elite, and they will be snapping at Spain’s heels.
La Roja should still lead the way, however, swatting aside Saudi Arabia and debutant Cape Verde—although the latter did beat eventual world champions Argentina in 2022. Spain’s result with Uruguay appears likely to be the decider for first place.
Group I: France
Group I Teams: France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
Group I is undoubtedly the ‘Group of Death.’ France is the standout team and are many people’s favorites for the crown in North America, but 14th-ranked Senegal and 31st-ranked Norway will pose a serious threat to its chances of finishing top.
Iraq will be the whipping boys of the group and are in for some heavy defeats, but the matches between the other three nations promise to deliver drama. France should prevail despite a difficult draw.
Group J: Argentina
Group J Teams: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
There appears little chance of a shock in Group J. Austria and Algeria are awkward adversaries, but their fight will be for second spot, with first and last all but nailed before a ball has even been kicked.
Reigning world champion Argentina should stroll to first considering its superior squad, conquering both Austria and Algeria en route to the knockout phase. A thought must be spared for Jordan, whose World Cup debut could end in disaster.
Group K: Portugal
Group K Teams: Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo
Group K appears more complicated to predict than many other groups. Portugal and Colombia are both realistic contenders for first place, the meeting between the sides likely to determine the eventual winners of the group.
Portugal is favorite to overcome its feisty South American foes, while neither should be overly concerned by Uzbekistan or DR Congo—although they will likely provide greater resistance than many anticipate.
Group L: England
Group L Teams: England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana
Similarly to Group K, there are two teams fighting tooth and nail for top spot in Group L. Those sides are England and Croatia, separated by just seven places in the world rankings and semifinal opponents back in 2018.
Either could take first place, but England are the favorites under Thomas Tuchel. It will also need to overcome up-and-comers Panama and the unpredictable Ghana to make sure it beats Croatia to the summit.
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Ewan Ross-Murray is a freelance soccer writer who focuses primarily on the Premier League. Ewan was born in Leicester, but his heart, and club allegiance, belongs to Liverpool.