Five Gameweeks That Could Decide the Premier League Title Race

Head-to-head duels during the run-in are set to shape the dynamic of the title race.

The Premier League title race is wide open as it stands. | Luca Rossini/NurPhoto/Getty Images, Sebastian Frej/Getty Images, James Gill/Danehouse/Getty Images, Visionhaus/Getty Images, Visionhaus/IMAGO

After squandering the chance to squeeze the life out of this Premier League title race, Arsenal’s lead has been trimmed to four points.

Matheus Cunha’s outstanding finish from distance was celebrated across Manchester and the West Midlands, as Michael Carrick’s re-emerging Red Devils scored a 3–2 victory at a nervous Emirates Stadium to embolden the Gunners’ nearest rivals at the summit.

Arsenal’s wobble has supporters projecting the worst, just when it seemed as if Mikel Arteta’s side would coast to their first league title since their undefeated 2003–04 campaign. Suddenly, every matchday feels monstrous in shaping the dynamic at the top of the division.

Here are the gameweeks that could decide the Premier League title race.

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Gameweek 27

Eberechi Eze scored a hat-trick in the first North London Derby of the season. | Alex Burstow/Arsenal FC/Getty Images

• Manchester City vs. Newcastle United—Feb. 21, 12:30 p.m. GMT / 7:30 a.m. ET
• Aston Villa vs. Leeds United—Feb. 21, 3:00 p.m. GMT / 10:00 a.m. ET
• Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal—Feb. 22, 4.30 p.m. GMT / 11:30 a.m. ET

Arsenal have a tricky run to navigate over the next couple of weeks, with visits to Leeds United and Brentford unlikely to be cakewalks. The vulnerabilities that have been on display in recent outings, namely their inability and unwillingness to create from open play, are bound to be seized upon by sides that can live with Arteta’s side physically.

Derbies are bound to play a major role in this season’s title race, and Tottenham Hotspur may well be playing to merely disrupt their fiercest rivals’ title charge. They’ve embarked on another miserable Premier League campaign, this time with Thomas Frank at the helm and the Dane could be out of the job by the time Arsenal visit N17 in Gameweek 27.

Spurs are woeful on home soil, and Arsenal have won on each of their previous three trips down Seven Sisters Road. The league leaders also battered their neighbours in the reverse fixture, as the otherwise quiet Eberechi Eze netted a hat-trick in a 4–1 rout.

The occasion is bound to be tense, with the Lilywhites, potentially boosted by a fresh set of ideas in the home dugout, keen to help out City and Villa. Both contenders are in action before the North London Derby kicks off, with City welcoming Newcastle United to the Etihad, while Villa host the resurgent Leeds.

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Gameweek 28

An improving Wolves will be aiming to disrupt Aston Villa’s unlikely challenge. | Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images

• Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Aston Villa—Feb. 27, 8:00 p.m. GMT / 3:00 p.m. ET
• Leeds United vs. Manchester City—Feb. 28, 5:30 p.m. GMT / 12:30 p.m. ET
• Arsenal vs. Chelsea—Mar. 1, 4.30 p.m. GMT / 11:30 a.m. ET

There’s another derby the following week, with Unai Emery’s Villans getting Gameweek 28 underway on Friday night at Molineux.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are improving under Rob Edwards—they’re harder to beat, anyway—but there’s already an acceptance that they’ll be playing in the second tier next season. So, similar to Spurs, Wolves will be all the more desperate to hinder the aspirations of a bitter foe.

Boubacar Kamara’s long-range strike proved to be the difference in their previous duel at the start of Edwards’ reign in what was a hotly-contested affair. Emery’s unlikely title hopefuls will want to get this banana skin out of the way, and three points under the lights will ensure they have their feet up for the weekend’s action.

There’s potential for slip-ups elsewhere, as City visit Leeds on the Saturday evening and Arsenal host Chelsea on Sunday afternoon. The Cityzens have had their issues on the road this season, and a rugged Leeds outfit are bound to give them issues in front of a raucous crowd.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are unbeaten against the Blues since 2021, but Liam Rosenior’s reign has gotten off to a productive start.

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Gameweek 33

Man City welcome the leaders to the Etihad in mid-April. | Marc Atkins/Getty Images

• Manchester City vs. Arsenal—Date, kick-off time TBC
• Aston Villa vs. Sunderland—Date, kick-off time TBC

While history suggests that Premier League title races typically aren’t decided by the head-to-head duels between the division’s top two, there’s no denying that the most significant fixture left in the calendar this season arrives in Gameweek 33.

In mid-April, Arsenal visit the home of the once-perennial champions, potentially with the chance to pull away at the summit.

The Gunners have squandered previous opportunities to lay down a marker at the Etihad, with the two previous meetings in Manchester ending all-square. During the 2023–24 run-in, a cautious Arsenal approach helped facilitate a goalless draw, then a John Stones strike at the death rescued a point for City at the start of last season.

City barely clung on for a point in the reverse fixture, sinking deep in a bid to contain Arteta’s side in a manner we’ve seldom seen from a Guardiola-led outfit. The Cityzens have had a poor start to the new year, but the arrivals of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi could prove significant in tilting the title race in their favour. Guardiola should have a couple of his defenders back from injury soon as well.

Arsenal may be in a position where a point is good enough, but they could also have the chance to completely kill off their most likely challengers in hostile territory.

Villa will be sitting back and watching the chaos unfold, most likely after they’ve welcomed Sunderland to Villa Park.

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Gameweek 37

The champions could have a say in the title race. | Steven Halliwell/MI News/NurPhoto/Getty Images

• Arsenal vs. Burnley—Date, kick-off time TBC
• Aston Villa vs. Liverpool—Date, kick-off time TBC
• Bournemouth vs. Manchester City—Date, kick-off time TBC

Liverpool have embarked on one of the most disappointing title defences in Premier League history. Arne Slot’s side were expected by many to retain their crown after a record-breaking summer, but the Reds are instead fighting to secure a spot in next season’s Champions League.

There’s a chance Slot doesn’t see the end of the campaign on Merseyside, which would be a remarkable turnaround from this time 12 months ago.

However, Liverpool may yet have a say in this title race. They’ll welcome City to Anfield on Feb. 8, and visit Aston Villa in the penultimate gameweek of the season.

Given their lack of squad depth and the potential of a deep Europa League run, if Emery’s Villans are still in title contention by the time Liverpool come to town, the Spaniard must be lauded as a miracle-worker. However, so many expected Villa to be out of contention by now. You can’t completely rule them out.

Arsenal supporters will hope that their advantage is unassailable come mid-May, but the Gunners are unlikely to canter to glory, given their recent blip. It’s set to be a fight ’til the end, and they’ll take on the potentially already relegated Burnley in their final home outing of 2025–26.

City finish their slate of away games at Bournemouth, where they were beaten for the first time ever last season.

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Gameweek 38

The two leading contenders face off on the final day. | Marc Atkins/AVFC/Aston Villa FC/Getty Images

• Manchester City vs. Aston Villa—May 24, 4:00 p.m. BST / 11:00 a.m. ET
• Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal—May 24, 4:00 p.m. BST / 11:00 a.m. ET

Perhaps Arsenal’s blip is in fact the start of a collapse, and they fall behind the two contenders. Despite their respective flawsCity and Aston Villa quickly overturn their four-point deficit on the current leaders, turning the title race into a shootout that no-one foreshadowed in pre-season.

If this scenario plays out, there’s a possibility of a winner-takes-all showdown on the final day of the season.

As they did to wrap up 2021–22, City welcome Villa to the Etihad with the title on the line. This time, though, the visitors have the chance to win the lot themselves. On that occasion, Steven Gerrard and Philippe Coutinho were aiming to send the silverware to their former home, Liverpool, and they certainly gave it a good crack.

Only ten times has the Premier League title been decided on the final day, and there hasn’t been a dramatic late usurping since Arsenal famously won 2–0 at Anfield to conclude the 1988–89 season.

The Gunners are at Crystal Palace on the final day, potentially miserable... or with the title already secure.

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