How Chelsea Can Qualify for the Champions League Last 16

Chelsea have endured a topsy-turvy European campaign.

Chelsea are currently inside the top eight of the league phase. | Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

A narrow victory over Cypriot side Pafos ensures Chelsea are the masters of their own destiny heading into their final Champions League league phase match.

Moisés Caicedo’s header ensured a third victory of the Liam Rosenior era and moved the Blues into eighth place ahead of the final matchday. Of course, finishing in the top eight guarantees clubs automatic progression to the Champions League last 16 and allows them to bypass the knockout playoff round.

Chelsea have positioned themselves well heading into their finale but a tricky continental trip teamed with a number of big-hitters hunting down their spot means they can take nothing for granted.

Here’s how Chelsea can secure safe passage to the round of 16.

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How Can Chelsea Qualify for Champions League Last 16?

Chelsea are eager to avoid the playoffs. | Steve Bardens/AMA/Getty Images

As things stand, Chelsea will qualify automatically for the last 16, but things could change very quickly on Wednesday, Jan. 28. With all teams in action on the same night, the Blues’ position in the top eight is under threat.

Chelsea have picked up 13 points from their seven European matches to date and find themselves in eighth on goal difference alone. They trail Real Madrid and Liverpool by two points, Tottenham Hotspur by a single point and they’re tied with as many as seven sides—Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Atalanta level on points with Rosenior’s men.

They will also be looking over their shoulder ahead of their final league phase fixture, with Inter, Juventus, Borussia Dortmund, Galatasaray and Qarabağ all technically capable of leapfrogging Chelsea despite sitting beneath them in the standings.

To secure their place in the top eight, Chelsea know they will realistically need to win their last match. That will be easier said than done considering they journey to Italy for a meeting with reigning Serie A champions Napoli and former Blues boss Antonio Conte. Their hosts will be fighting for a playoff spot having only accumulated eight points to date.

Even victory is not necessarily enough for Chelsea. With so many sides level on points, goal difference could well be the deciding factor. Fortunately for the Blues, PSG and Newcastle, who are both just above them in the table, play against one another, while there are also meetings between Man City and Galatasaray, Liverpool and Qarabağ and Inter and Dortmund when it comes to teams around them in the standings.

So, not only will Chelsea be chasing all three points in Naples, they will want to ensure they boost their goal difference as much as humanly possible. Currently on +6, they trail the likes of Spurs, PSG and Newcastle, but sit narrowly ahead of Sporting, Man City and Atléti (full table below). The Blues must win and better the results of the sides beneath them in the table.

A draw would almost certainly see Chelsea drop out of the top eight bar a freakish set of results, while defeat would be fatal.

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Champions League Table Ahead of Matchday 8

Position	Club	Points	Goal Difference
1.	Arsenal	21	+18
2.	Bayern Munich	18	+13
3.	Real Madrid	15	+11
4.	Liverpool	15	+6
5.	Tottenham Hotspur	14	+8
6.	Paris Saint-Germain	13	+10
7.	Newcastle United	13	+10
8.	Chelsea	13	+6
9.	Barcelona	13	+5
10.	Sporting CP	13	+5
11.	Manchester City	13	+4
12.	Atlético Madrid	13	+3
13.	Atalanta	13	+1
14.	Inter Milan	12	+6
15.	Juventus	12	+4
16.	Borussia Dortmund	11	+4
17.	Galatasaray	10	0
18.	Qarabağ	10	-2
19.	Marseille	9	0
20.	Bayer Leverkusen	9	-4
21.	Monaco	9	-6
22.	PSV Eindhoven	8	+1
23.	Athletic Club	8	-4
24.	Olympiacos	8	-5
25.	Napoli	8	-5
26.	Copenhagen	8	-6
27.	Club Brugge	7	-5
28.	Bodø/Glimt	6	-2
29.	Benfica	6	-4
30.	Pafos	6	-6
31.	Union Saint-Gilloise	6	-10
32.	Ajax	6	-12
33.	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	-9
34.	Slavia Prague	3	-11
35.	Villarreal	1	-10
36.	Kairat Almaty	1	-14

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How Can Chelsea Qualify for the Champions League Knockout Phase?

Chelsea face a challenging fight to clinch their top-eight finish but there is no chance of the west Londoners being eliminated at the league phase. The Blues have already secured a spot in the knockout playoff round at the very least, although they will be determined to avoid two extra European fixtures.

Failing to make the top eight certainly doesn’t end Chelsea’s hopes of another European crown. It’s easy to forget that PSG finished just 15th in the league phase before eventually lifting the trophy aloft last season, beating Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Inter in the knockout rounds—all teams who automatically progressed to the last 16.

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