How Real Madrid Can Avoid Historic Barcelona Title Win in El Clasico

Spain’s top two face each other at the Bernabéu on May 10.

Barcelona could clinch their La Liga crown in Madrid. | Burak Akbulut/Anadolu/Getty Images

With five gameweeks to go, the title race in La Liga is all but mathematically over.

Barcelona sit 11 points clear of second-placed Real Madrid, wIth Álvaro Arbeloa’s men dropping points in three of their last four outings to effectively concede defeat in the battle for top spot.

It is now case of when, rather than if, Barça will officially wrap up their second title in as many years, as Madrid wait on another summer of introspection and—potentially—major change.

Before that though, the two sides face each other in the season’s final Clásico at the Bernabéu on May 10. It could prove to be an uncomfortable evening for Madrid one way or another.

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Will Barcelona Win La Liga at the Bernabéu?

Real Madrid’s focus is on slowing down Barcelona’s title charge. | Maciej Rogowski/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images

As things stand, the most points Real Madrid can still end up with this season is 89—if they were to win all five remaining games. Barcelona, currently on 85 points, need only five points from their final five games to secure the title. Opta’s supercomputer currently gives Barça a 99.5% chance of retaining La Liga.

If Madrid were to draw or lose this weekend away to Espanyol, while Barcelona were to beat Osasuna, the gap of 13 or 14 points would be unassailable and Hansi Flick’s team would officially be champions.

Assuming Madrid match Barça’s result this weekend, the Clásico encounter on May 10 would then become match point in the title race. A tie at the Bernabéu would be enough to clinch the crown for the visitors if the two teams meet with anything more than a nine-point gap.

Even if Madrid beat Espanyol and Barcelona lose to Osasuna in gameweek 34, the Catalans could still seal the title with a victory at the Bernabéu.

Should Madrid win against Espanyol and then come out on top in the Clásico, Barcelona would have to wait until at least gameweek 36 for official confirmation.

Madrid beat Barcelona 2–1 in their last league meeting back in October 2025, with Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham on the scoresheet.

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Historic Achievement

Álvaro Arbeloa has vowed to keep fighting until it’s officially all over. | Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Adding salt to the wounds for Madridistas, a title-deciding Clásico would be historically significant.

Somewhat surprisingly, in the near 100-year history of La Liga, neither Barcelona nor Madrid have ever won the title in a Clásico encounter.

The specter of the possible achievement will undoubtedly be a motivating factor for both teams ahead of an already high-pressure fixture.

For his part, Arbeloa has insisted Madrid will keep fighting as long as there is even the slightest chance.

He told reporerts: “Until there are mathematically no opportunities, there is a league. Until then, we will continue fighting for it.”

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Guard of Honor Drama

The “pasillo” is a tradition in Spanish football. | Guillermo Martinez/NurPhoto via Getty Images

In Spain, as in many countries, if a team has mathematically been confirmed as La Liga champions during the campaign, they are typically given a pasillo (guard of honor) by their opposition before kick-off in their remaining fixtures.

Madrid have occasionally opted out of the tradition, notably snubbing Barcelona after this season’s Supercopa final in Jeddah and during a controversial league meeting at Camp Nou towards the end of the 2017–18 campaign.

Back in 2018, manager Zinedine Zidane took responsibility for the snub, saying: “I don’t understand the guard of honor thing, and we’re not going to do it.”

Back in 2008, Barcelona’s stars lined up to applaud the then-confirmed champions of Real Madrid at the Bernabéu.

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