Supercomputer Predicts 2025 AFCON Winner

Morocco are not only the hosts but many people’s favorite to dethrone Ivory Coast.

Can Ivory Coast win back-to-back AFCON titles? / FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images

Each edition of the Africa Cup of Nations delivers unadulterated drama and the upcoming tournament is primed to serve up another extraordinary spectacle.

The 2025 tournament—its 35th iteration since 1957—will be staged in Morocco, with 24 nations from across the continent competing for glory. However, only a handful of countries harbor genuine ambitions of clinching the title.

Morocco, who are hosting the tournament for the first time since 1988, are among the favorites, while defending champions Ivory Coast will be hopeful of becoming the first back-to-back AFCON winners since Egypt went three for three in the late 2000s.

The trusty Opta supercomputer has made its predictions for the tournament winner, and here are its thoughts.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025 AFCON Winner

Hosts Morocco are considered significant favorites. / Mohamed Farag/FIFA/Getty Images

While the supercomputer believes there are a number of candidates for the crown, Morocco are the clear favorites. As well as home advantage, they are currently FIFA’s highest-ranked African nation at 11th in the standings, and their fourth-placed finish at the 2022 World Cup lives in recent memory.

With Achraf Hakimi as their talisman and the likes of Brahim Díaz, Noussair Mazraoui and Yassine Bounou as key members of the supporting cast, it’s easy to see why they’re given a 19.1% chance of winning the title.

Three of the supercomputer’s four favorites are from North Africa, with record seven-time champions Egypt also handed a strong chance of lifting the trophy. Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush and Co. have been given a 12.4% chance of glory, although they haven’t claimed the prize since 2010. The runners-up in 2021 are hopeful that their star players rise to the occasion.

Morocco’s fierce rivals Algeria have been given a 12.0% chance of only a third title. They most recently triumphed in 2019 and have some incredible players in their squad, including the likes of Rayan Aït-Nouri, Mohamed Amoura and 34-year-old captain Riyad Mahrez, who is still capable of special things.

Sandwiched just in between Egypt and Algeria are third favorites Senegal, the 2021 champions who have featured in two of the last three finals. They are the second highest-ranked African nation at 19th in FIFA’s standings and they will be expecting to go all the way with a star-studded squad. 20 of their travelers play in Europe’s top five leagues, while three of the seven who don’t are former Premier League stars in Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly and, of course, Sadio Mané.

There is a steep drop down to fifth favorites Nigeria, who are given just a 7.3% chance of glory. Despite boasting the likes of Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, the 2023 runners-up fall short of the four leading candidates as they seek a first title since 2013. The issue for the Super Eagles is likely to be their defense, which is short of elite options.

Next. AFCON favorites. The Favorites to Win 2025 AFCON—Ranked. dark

Victor Osimhen’s Nigeria were beaten finalists in 2023. / PHILL MAGAKOE/AFP/Getty Images

Tunisia (6.8%) and reigning champs Ivory Coast (6.7%) are almost indistinguishable when it comes to their odds of success. The former have reached the quarterfinal in four of the last five tournaments, while the latter no longer boast a squad inspired by stars such as Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, but they still have plenty of talent as demonstrated on home soil two years ago.

Mali (6.4%) have an outside shot of glory in Morocco, as do Cameroon (4.1%). The latter are in turmoil heading into the tournament, however, with Cameroonian Football Federation president Samuel Eto’o, a former national team icon, at war with manager Marc Brys. Having refused to be sacked on the eve of the tournament, Brys has selected his own squad despite Eto’o also choosing a roster of players.

South Africa (2.2%) and DR Congo (2.0%) have a glimmer of hope heading to Morocco, but are not realistically expected to trouble the latter stages. Zimbabwe (0.2%) and Botswana (0.2%) are considered the tournament’s biggest underdogs.

Nation	Chance of Winning
Morocco	19.1%
Egypt	12.4%
Senegal	12.3%
Algeria	12.0%
Nigeria	7.3%
Tunisia	6.8%
Ivory Coast	6.7%
Mali	6.4%
Cameroon	4.1%
South Africa	2.2%
DR Congo	2.0%
Angola	1.3%
Burkina Faso	1.2%
Gabon	1.0%
Zambia	1.0%
Mozambique	0.8%
Sudan	0.6%
Equatorial Guinea	0.6%
Tanzania	0.5%
Benin	0.5%
Comoros	0.4%
Uganda	0.4%
Zimbabwe	0.2%
Botswana	0.2%

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