Supercomputer Predicts FIFA Club World Cup Winner: Will PSG Win Another Trophy?

The redesigned FIFA Club World Cup features 32 teams, but just 10 have greater than one percent odds of lifting the trophy.
The FIFA Club World Cup trophy will be awarded on July 13.
The FIFA Club World Cup trophy will be awarded on July 13. / IMAGO/Brazil Photo Press

The FIFA Club World Cup gets underway this weekend, June 14, with 32 teams competing across the United States in the revamped and redesigned international tournament. European sides like Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and more are including alongside MLS teams like Inter Miami and LAFC.

Added to an already packed match calendar and running alongside the Concacaf Gold Cup, the new-look Club World Cup is one of the most lucrative tournaments this year in terms of prize money. Often overlooked in its old iteration, FIFA expects this tournament to drive interest and fill a void between their international World Cup.

Clubs qualified through various means. Check out the full list of qualified teams here.

While on paper the favorites might be easy to predict, Opta ran their supercomputer model to see every teams' odds of lifting the trophy this summer.

Here are Opta's predictions ahead of the tournament for the top 10 teams' chances of making each stage and possibly winning the tournament.

Watch the FIFA Club World Cup live and on-demand here


FIFA Club World Cup Predictions by Opta: Top 10 Teams, Stage Qualification Odds

Team

R16 Odds

QF Odds

SF Odds

Final Odds

Win Odds

PSG

91.6%

75.4%

49.2%

30.9%

18.5%

Man City

97.2%

73.4%

48.6%

29.6%

17.8%

Bayern

93.3%

67.5%

42.5%

23.7%

12.8%

Inter Milan

94.7%

74.4%

40.9%

23.2%

12.3%

Real Madrid

93.4%

55.2%

36.4%

19.3%

9.8%

Chelsea

93.4%

56%

30.9%

16.9%

8.4%

Dortmund

92.7%

61.1%

28.6%

12.8%

5.4%

Atléti

73.7%

51.7%

25.9%

12.1%

5.1%

Juventus

87.4%

45.3%

23.8%

9.8%

3.6%

Benfica

81.7%

44.2%

20.4%

8.7%

3.3%


PSG are the favorites in Opta's model to win the competition with Manchester City closest to them. Both sides met in the Champions League league phase this past season with the Parisiens picking up a vital victory en route to securing a knockout stage spot. A win that could be categorized as the one that gave them belief to go on and win their first Champions League trophy. Man City, on the other hand, while star-studded are coming off just the second season in the Pep Guardiola-era where they failed to win any silverware.

Bayern, Inter and Real Madrid round out to the top five, but the latter doesn't have greater than 10% odds.

After Benfica, no team has greater than a one percent chance of lifting the trophy. If anything, a shocking yet revealing indication of the gulf in quality between the teams competing in the tournament this summer.

The FIFA Club World Cup starts Saturday, June 16 with Al Ahly taking on Lionel Messi's Inter Miami. There will be an opening ceremony at Hard Rock Stadium before the game including performances from French Montana, Swae Lee and more.

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Published
Max Mallow
MAX MALLOW

Max Mallow is an associate editor for Sports Illustrated, primarily working on the SI FC brand.