2026 Roland Garros Women’s Seed Report: Aryna Sabalenka Is the Favorite in an Open Field

If the men’s draw is vertical—a single force against the field—the women’s draw is horizontal, a wide-open pasture filled with possibility. You could make a credible case for 20 different players to win. You could make a compelling case against any of those 20 as well. The top seed struggled in Madrid and Rome. The second seed has never been to a Roland Garros semifinal.

The top 16

1. Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka was a Roland Garros finalist last year, and it says here she redeems her previous hour on Court Philippe-Chatrier and wins in 2026. We could note her defeats in Madrid and Rome, or the fact that she is a clear-cut No. 1, yet has won only one of the past five majors. However, let’s be more charitable: She has become a bankable player at the end of majors, and as long as that’s the case, she gives herself a chance. And as long as that’s the case, she’s our favorite.

2. Elena Rybakina

Rybakina is a better clay-court player than one might think, looking at her results and sheer power. (Trivia: Who was the last player to beat Serena Williams at Roland Garros?) She won the previous major, and her results haven’t cooled much. With a Carlos Alcaraz–Jannik Sinner final no longer a possibility this year, maybe Roland Garros serves us a No.1 vs. No. 2, Aussie encore, on the women’s side? Do note Rybakina has never been beyond the quarterfinals at the French Open.

3. Iga Świątek

Her track record in Paris speaks for itself. In fact, it screams. Świątek has more titles (four) than defeats (three), but it’s been a rough 2026, marked by early losses, a coaching change, admitted erosion of confidence and food poisoning. She reopened the bakery in Rome, but then lost a desultory match to Elina Svitolina. Still, she’s back at the venue where she’s made a Hall-of-Fame-worthy résumé. And the last time she engendered this much concern (June 2025), she responded by winning Wimbledon.

4. Coco Gauff

Gauff enters Paris as the defending champion, emphasis on defending. It’s not her power that makes her effective on clay, it’s her court coverage, speed and defense. Her play in Rome—in which she lost a three-set final—is a metaphor for her game overall. She plays herself out of rough patches, tries to corral her serve, persists, and eventually comes close to top form. So long as she remains comfortable winning ugly—and she is—this might be her best surface.

5. Jessica Pegula

There is so much to like and admire about Pegula. She’s solid and reliable, but clay has not been kind to her. (She took a bad loss to Marta Kostyuk in Madrid and mustered only three games against Świątek in Rome.) Pegula lost to Loïs Boisson at Roland Garros last year. Her professionalism, self-awareness, and rock-solid game are admirable, but if she’s going to win a major, it’s unlikely to come at the French Open.

6. Amanda Anisimova

Clay isn’t Anisimova’s best surface, but she reached her first major semifinal in Paris. The dreaded wrist injury kept her out of Madrid and Rome and is a cause for concern. It’s been a disappointing year for the 24-year-old after winning a dozen matches at the last two majors of 2025, but maybe this is where she turns it around. Note, she has a new coach as well.

7. Elina Svitolina

The Rome champion has the most momentum coming into Paris. All credit to a mother, a Ukrainian leader and a 31-year-old player still at the peak of her powers. For all her achievements, she’s never been to a major final (but has had four semifinal runs), and the opportunities are dwindling. Coming off a dazzling run in Rome, is this the time and place?

8. Mirra Andreeva

The salon has decided that she is a future major winner, but she still has some steps to get there. In keeping with her age, she has a teenager’s disposition. She has a pair of titles (one on clay) and also some baffling defeats. Her final run in Madrid answered questions and provoked others. Her anticipation serves her especially well on clay, but the lack of a kill shot does not.

9. Victoria Mboko

She made her major debut at Roland Garros last year, and the world took notice of her game, poise and command of the sport. She returns to the French Open as a top-10 player (and with a new coach, the estimable, well-traveled Wim Fissette). And she’s still a teenager.

10. Karolína Muchová

She came within a set of winning the French Open title in 2023. Muchová is such a fine, fun, versatile player, but she can struggle to stay healthy and close out matches.

11. Belinda Bencic

She’s a steady, mature, professional player who won’t blast many off the court, but simply knows how to win to a point.

12. Linda Nosková

She’s one of eight Czechs in the top 50. Nosková may be the best player you’ve never seen? She’s at a career-high ranking, and she’s only 21.

13. Jasmine Paolini

Her slump has grown a tail. The former Roland Garros finalist is, sadly, a .500 hitter this year, losing matches as often as she wins. Maybe this is where she turns around her season?

14. Ekaterina Alexandrova

In 2025, she achieved a career-high top 10 ranking, and it came in her 30s. Like fellow Russian Karen Khachanov, all she does is win a lot of matches and seldom takes bad losses.

15. Marta Kostyuk

She won two clay titles (Rouen and Madrid) and seems to have reached a new level. Her post-match backflip went viral, but it also offered a glimpse into her level of athleticism. Now that her confidence is buoyant, look out.

16. Naomi Osaka

Tennis’s great champion has turned into tennis’s great mystery. Osaka is still a formidable player, but the pilot light flickers on and off. Can she still contest for majors, and, if not, how long does she remain in the arena?

Seeds 17–32

17. Iva Jovic

The talented, mature American teen is set to make her Roland Garros debut.

18. Sorana Cîrstea

The Romanian veteran is proving to be a tough out in her final season, and she beat the world No.1 in Rome. She enters Roland Garros with a career-high ranking.

19. Madison Keys

If sufficiently healthy (and if she can convince herself she can play on clay—an annual challenge), she can still outhit anyone.

26. Hailey Baptiste

Her run to the top 25 includes a clay takedown of Sabalenka in Madrid.

28. Anastasia Potapova

Now playing for Austria, Potapova is coming off a Madrid semifinal run.

29. Jeļena Ostapenko

She’s doyenne of huffy indignation. All former champions merit mention.

30. Ann Li

The American is quietly climbing the ranks.

Dark horse pasture

Barbora Krejčíková: All former champions merit mention. Her health has been a challenge, but if she gets rolling, look out.

Emma Raducanu: Now 23, she remains tennis’s strangest story. She has one title, and it happens to be a major, which has distorted everything. She returns to Roland Garros with coach Andrew Richardson.

Kateřina Siniaková: She’s always been a sneaky threat who doesn’t shy away from a battle.

Alexandra Eala: The crowds she draws are perhaps disproportionate to her achievements, but there is still so much to like.

Loïs Boisson: She’s been injured and will be lucky to win a round or two, but the winsome semifinalist from 2025 deserves a shout out.

Qinwen Zhang: She’s been slowed by injury, but remember the gold medal she won at the 2024 Olympics? That was at Roland Garros.

Sofia Kenin: The former finalist has lost more than she’s won since, but she’s still a tough out on clay.

Caty McNally: The Cincinnati native is healthy (and still only 24) and making her move. (And she’s a former Roland Garros girls’ finalist.)

First round matches to watch

Dayana Yastremska vs. Paolini
Andreeva vs. Fiona Ferro: Take a moment and read Ferro’s story, and then root for her in a match she is not likely to win.
Peyton Stearns vs. Kenin: An operatic three-set battle waiting to happen.
Krejcikova vs. Baptiste: The former champion vs. an ascendant American.
Gauff vs. Taylor Townsend: This should be an interesting debut match for the defending champ.
Jovic vs. Eala: The two up-and-comers face off.
Leylah Fernandez vs. Alycia Parks

Doubles Winner

Taylor Townsend and Kateřina Siniaková

Semifinals

Svitolina d. Rybakina
Sabalenka d. Gauff

Final

Sabalenka d. Svitolina

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