Who Has the Best Shot to Dethrone Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner at Australian Open?

Can anyone get past the new two in Melbourne | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The top two men in tennis have become next to unstoppable. ATP world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Jannik Sinner are the only two players to win a major over the past two years. With the first major of the year upon us in the Australian Open, will 2026 be any different?

Alcaraz and Sinner’s dominance amid their strong friendship and already legendary rivalry makes their unseating at any major difficult to imagine. Maybe even unrealistic. But this is tennis—crazy is the norm and plenty of budding stars and seasoned players are gunning for major victories of their own.

The last player not named Sinner or Alcaraz to win a major was none other than Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open in ‘23. That was Djokovic’s 24th major win, the most of all time, and the 38-year-old continues to eye a historic 25th major.

A big question is who will be the first between Alcaraz and Sinner to achieve a career Grand Slam. Alcaraz has a chance to do it first, only needing a win at the Australian Open to secure the feat. He’s had a bit of an Australia problem, though, as he has not yet made it past the quarterfinals in Melbourne. After a historic year which included wins in the French and U.S. Opens, however, this could be the year Alcaraz gets it done in Australia.

Sinner needs a win at the French Open to accomplish a career Grand Slam, coming oh so close to a victory at Roland Garros last year before Alcaraz’s miraculous comeback in an epic final. If Alcaraz doesn’t win in Australia, Sinner would have the next chance to cap off a career Grand Slam at the French Open this summer.

The most likely outcome for the Australian Open is the next rendition of the Sinner and Alcaraz rivalry in the final. But, there are 126 other players in the field and neither superstar has an easy draw per se. Sinner could see up-and-comer Joao Fonseca in the third round, while Alcaraz could see Tommy Paul or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the fourth. And that’s before things get even more interesting in the quarter and semifinals.

If, and that’s a big if, Alcaraz or Sinner aren’t the Australian Open winner, plenty of other top-ranked players would be more than happy to take the stage. Here are the candidates who have the best shot to get past Alcaraz or Sinner and make a deep run in Melbourne at the first major of the year, listed in no particular order:

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev won the US Open in 2021 | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Daniil Medvedev, the current ATP world No. 12, may have the best chance to make a deep run in Australia past Alcaraz, whom he could meet in a potential semifinal match. His path to a match with the world No. 1 would have to go through Felix Auger Aliassime in the fourth round and Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals—two players that Medvedev has gotten the better of over his career.

Alcaraz owns the series against Medvedev 7-2, getting past the Russian in four straight meetings. In majors, though, they are even at two wins apiece. They have only met on a hard court in a major once, a match which Medvedev won in the U.S. Open semis in ‘23. That was a while ago, and Alcaraz has won four majors since then, but Medvedev is in good form, recently winning the Brisbane International to start his year.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is in search of the elusive 25th major title | Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Sure, Djokovic is in the twilight of his legendary career, but the 38-year-old remains a machine when it comes to making a run in majors alongside Sinner and Alcaraz’s dominance. He made it to the semifinals of all four majors last year and fell to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final the year before. Djokovic’s most recent win in a major came on a hard court over Medvedev at the ‘23 U.S. Open.

Should Djokovic make it back to the semis in Melbourne, he’d likely have to get past Sinner to play for his elusive 25th major title. Sinner leads the all-time series with Djokovic 6-4, eliminating him at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and Roland Garros just last year. With the record for most major wins ever, Djokovic can’t be written off as a threat to defy the odds even though he’s only getting older.

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev is the current world No. 3 | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Zverev, the highest-ranked player not named Sinner or Alcaraz, has yet to win his first major. That doesn’t take away from all he’s accomplished, with 24 titles at the ATP level. His most recent win came in Munich last year and he won the title at two Masters 1000s in ‘24.

The monkey on his back for finding his first major win is real, though. Zverev was able to get to the Australian Open final last year, defeating Djokovic in the semifinals after the 38-year-old got past Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. Zverev ultimately fell to Sinner in straight sets in the ‘25 AO final. He wouldn’t have to see Sinner until the final again this year, but Alcaraz would presumably wait in the semis if Zverev can advanced past the heavy-hitting trio of Medvedev, Auger Aliassime and Andrey Rublev in his quarter.

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur hopes to break through at his home major | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Alex de Minaur hasn’t gotten past the quarterfinals in any major thus far over his career, but why not his home major should he be able to change that this year? The Australian and current ATP world No. 6 would need to get through Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, which is as tall a task as any. His path to the quarters would have to go through Frances Tiafoe in the third round and then world No. 10 Alexander Bublik in the round of 16 before he would see Alcaraz.

Last year at the Australian Open, he fell to Sinner in straight sets in the quarters. The 26-year-old Australian has yet to beat Sinner or Alcaraz, but de Minaur is coming off a strong season which returned him to the top 10 and included a win at the Washington Open. Should he be able to do the impossible, it would only help to have the home crowd on his side.

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton is up to No. 8 in the world | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Let’s finish with an American. Taylor Fritz or Ben Shelton have fairly even chances in Australia, but I’ll give the slight nod to Shelton, who’s all the way up to No. 8 in the world. He does have the tougher draw, with a potential matchup with Sinner in the quarterfinals and he’d have to get past Casper Ruud to get that far.

Despite being held back at the U.S. Open due to injury, Shelton had a career year last season, winning his first Masters 1000—a victory that came in Canada. Shelton has only beaten Sinner once, which came in their first meeting at the ATP level. Sinner has gotten the better of Shelton in their last eight meetings, but the 23-year-old American is only getting better, and has one of the best serves on tour. Fritz would have to get by Djokovic in the quarters before he saw Sinner, but he has yet to beat Djokovic in 11 tries in ATP events, even though he did get a win recently at the Six Kings Slam when Djokovic retired.

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